587
AXPQ20 PGUM 270046
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1046 AM ChST Wed Nov 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A trade-wind trough stretches from west of Sonsoral through Koror
and Yap, to just northeast of Yap. This feature has scattered
showers along it, and although thunderstorms have not been
observed recently, cloud top temperatures are in excess of - 70
deg. C, so it`s certainly possible they (thunderstorms) may
develop as this feature continues it`s westward movement over the
next few days.

A stronger trough extends northeast from well south-southeast of
Yap near 4N140E through western Chuuk State to near 11N151E. This
is part of the trough that was near 148E yesterday, as this trough
has amplified over the last 24 hours and re-orientated itself.
Much of this trough is also located within a fairly active ITCZ.
Due to this, abundant cloud cover is present with fairly
widespread showers prevalent near it, with a few thunderstorms
mixed in as well. This feature looks to do much the same over the
next several days as it crosses western Micronesia, eventually
exiting the Republic of Palau.

Upstream to the east is another more compact trough that
stretches from Pingelap to Eniwetok, with abundant cloud cover
and scattered showers accompanying it. This will likely continue
the next several days as the models maintain favorable conditions
for it to do so.

Finally, another trough extends from the southern FSM through
Majuro to east of Ulrick. Here too widespread clouds and scattered
showers accompany this feature. This marks the tail end of the
ITCZ, which also will continue westward over the next 7 days.

TRADE-WIND SURGE...
Mainly moderate winds are found between 6N and 18N from 130E to
145E, which encompassing almost all of the Republic of Palau and
western Yap state. Then, it becomes mainly fresh to strong east
of there between 5N and 20N for 600 miles eastward to include the
remainder of Yap State, Guam, and the CNMI. Winds then drop back
into the moderate range from 155E to 170E, decreasing further into
the gentle to fresh range east of there to the Date Line between
the equator and 16N.

...ITCZ...
An active ITCZ spans from 135E to the FSM with the greatest
concentration located between 4N and 11N. Here, cloud top
temperatures in excess of -70 deg. C are common, indicative of
potential thunderstorm development, especially as you top -80 deg.
C when thunderstorms typically occur in the tropics, and this has
been the case within this zone. The ITCZ is forecast to remain
active through the weekend, with a new surge crossing the Date
Line during that time, before spreading westward next week.

$$

Doll