109
AXPQ20 PGUM 160118
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1118 AM ChST Sun Nov 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
The Near Equatorial Trough (NET) extends eastward into Guam`s
Area of Responsibility (AOR) at around 5N130E, from just south of
Mindanao. The NET then continues east-southeast through a broad,
weak elongated circulation centered over eastern Yap State near
4N147E, before curving northeast to end around 6N150E. Showers are
isolated to scattered across much of the NET axis, becoming
numerous across eastern Yap State along the northern edge of the
aforementioned circulation, where it interacts with a weak trade-
wind trough. The NET and embedded circulation look to gradually
move west through much of the week with little change, diminishing
slightly by the end of the week.

TRADE-WIND AND SURFACE TROUGHS...
Several trade-wind and surface troughs are seen across the
region. The first is seen over western Chuuk State extending
southwest into a broad, elongated circulation over eastern Yap
State, from around 8N149E to 4N147E. Numerous showers are seen
along and west of the trough axis, extending along the northern
periphery of the circulation. This weak trough will gradually
shift west to northwest over the next few days, increasing showers
near Yap Proper around Tuesday morning, as the overall
circulation shifts west.

Another weak surface trough is interacting with the NET,
extending southeast from around 7N134E south of Koror, to around
2N142E, with scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two
seen along the trough axis. This trough may slightly enhance
showers near Palau today, gradually shifting southwest over the
next day or so, weakening as it moves away.

A few subtle, transient troughs are seen within the trade-wind
flow east of the Marianas, extending from north-northeast to
south-southwest, with the first trough seen just east of the CNMI
extending from 17N151E to 13N149E. Two more troughs are seen
further east in the general vicinity of Wake Island, from 21N166E
to 15N164E, and from 22N172E to 15N170E. Isolated to scattered
showers are seen along the trough axes to the east and west of
Wake Island, with just isolated showers along the trough east of
the CNMI. These features will shift west and become indistinct
within the trade-wind flow over the next day or so, increasing
showers near Wake Island sometime tonight or tomorrow morning.

A trade-wind trough is seen just west of Pohnpei, extending
southwest from 8N156E to 6N154E, with isolated to scattered
showers seen along the northern edge of the trough, over and west
of Pohnpei. This trough is one of several such transient features
that will shift westward and diminish over the next day or so.
Another such trough is seen further east, extending southward
from over the western Marshall Islands, from 8N167E to 6N167E.
Patchy showers and extensive cloud cover are seen along this
trough, extending eastward along the fragmented remnants of the
Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which extend over and east
of the central to northern Marshall Islands.

TUTT...
A TUTT extends west-southwest into the AOR around 16N180, curving
southwest through an elongated TUTT low around 13N168E, continuing
west-southwest to the northwest of Pohnpei around 9N156E. The TUTT
looks to be interacting with weak troughing over the northern
Marshall Islands to support scattered showers there, with
otherwise little activity along the TUTT. The TUTT looks to remain
quasi-stationary over the next day or two, gradually shifting west
and weakening through the second half of the week.

OTHER SYSTEMS...

ITCZ...
The ITCZ has fragmented into a series of troughs across eastern
Micronesia, from just west of Pohnpei to the Date Line. Numerous
showers are seen to the east of Majuro, within a broad northwest-
southeast oriented trough extending from 12N171E to 6N180.
Scattered showers are seen elsewhere, becoming patchier west of
the Marshall Islands. The ITCZ looks to reorganize across the
region by midweek, then fall apart into a series of troughs once
more toward the end of the week.

$$

DeCou