329
AXPQ20 PGUM 220111
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1111 AM ChST Wed Jul 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
There are 2 monsoon disturbances across the region. The first one is
Invest 92W, centered near 13.1N 136.0E, drifting NNE. Invest 92W has
been upgraded to medium, meaning that development is likely, but
expected beyond 24 hours. Invest 92W is seen as a broad, weak
circulation with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms found
between 10N and 19N from 130E and 141E. Feeder bands with scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are found across
Palau to just W of Yap Proper. Convection is currently not very
impressive, but looks more organized than yesterday. 92W is expected
to slowly strengthen over the next few days as it moves NW. Invest
92W is not expected to have any direct impact with points in
Micronesia or the Marianas as it moves across the Philippine Sea. For
more information on Invest 92W, see bulletins issued by the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW.

The next disturbance is Invest 93W, centered along the monsoon
trough NNE of Majuro near 12.2N 174.7E. 93W remains sub-low, meaning
development into a significant tropical cyclone is not expected over
the next few days. It has drifted slowly W over the last 24 hours.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with 93W are
found along and N of the monsoon trough up to 270 miles. 93W is
expected to move slowly toward the W to WNW over the next several
days with little to no change in intensity. Invest 93W will be
monitored closely over the coming days for any indication of
strengthening.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends NE across 130E into Invest 92W, then
turns E to pass just just N of Saipan, where it turns SE. The trough
extends into another circulation centered near near 5N162E. It then
turns NE to Invest 93W, turning ESE and crossing the Date Line near
10N. the convection along the monsoon trough W of 140W is associated
with Invest 92W, described above. E of 146E to 170E, scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are found along and S of the
trough, as far S as the Equator. E of 170E, all convection is found
with Invest 93W and along the monsoon trough to beyond the Date Line.
Little change in intensity is expected with the trough over the next
few days as it meanders around the region.

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A trade-wind trough is seen extending N from Invest 93W, ending near
22N172E. Weak divergence aloft with a developing TUTT is helping to
generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ENE of Wake
Island. The trough will move W over the coming days with little
change in intensity.

TUTT...
The TUTT enters the region near 25N177E, extending SW to a weak TUTT
cell centered near 15N163E, then continues SW to end near 12N160E.
Weak divergence associated with the TUTT is interacting with a weak
trade-wind trough to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms ENE of Wake Island. The TUTT looks to remain quasi-
stationary over the coming days with little change in intensity.

OTHER SYSTEMS...
A weak cold front is found along the far N periphery of the region,
crossing 25N near 159E, ending near 25N144E. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found along the frontal boundary, with
another narrow band found SE of the front in a band of enhanced
convergence from 25N162E to 21N157E. The front will continue to move
E as it slowly weakens.

$$

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