869
AXPQ20 PGUM 240034
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1034 AM ChST Sun Nov 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A series of five trade-wind troughs are seen traversing Micronesia
this morning. The first is west of Palau stretching north-northwest
from near 4N133E to beyond 130E at 9N. This trough is producing a
band of convergence across Palau that is generating deep convection
with scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across
Palau. This trough will continue to move west, crossing 130E later
tonight.

The second trough is seen west of Chuuk, stretching northward from
near 1N149E to near 8N137E.This trough is now west of the ITCZ, with
only spotty showers and thunderstorms seen with the trough. The
trough will continue to move west toward Yap and Palau with
convection expected to increase as the trough approaches a more
unstable region with increasing PWATs, as indicated by the latest
CIMMS MIMIC PWAT image.

The next trough is seen between Pohnpei and Chuuk, interacting with
the ITCZ (discussed below) that is present in the region. Satellite
shows deep convection with scattered to numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms from near the trough westward across Weno,
Chuuk. The trough will continue westward over the next few days, with
convection decreasing as the trough outruns the western end of the
ITCZ.

A fourth trough is seen west of Kwajalein and Majuro stretching
north-northwest from near 5N169E to 12N166E. This trough is also
interacting with the ITCZ to produce deep convection with scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Marshall
Islands near Kwajalein and Majuro. The trough will continue to move
west over the coming days, bringing increased convection to Kosrae
over the next couple of days.

The final trade-wind trough is seen east of Majuro, extending
northeast from near 5N174E to near 13N179E. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen east of Majuro as the trough moves
across the eastern end of the ITCZ. The trough will move west over
the next few days, increasing convection across the Marshalls and
Kosrae as it moves into a more favorable environment for convection.

TRADE-WIND SURGE...

...ITCZ...
The ITCZ meanders eastward from west of Chuuk near 7N149E across
Pohnpei, but north of Kosrae to near Majuro at around 7N161E, then
makes a turn toward the northeast, crossing the Date Line near 9N.
The ITCZ is interacting with several trade-wind troughs, as mentioned
above, to produce scattered to numerous showers from Chuuk to the
Date Line. The ITCZ looks to slowly lift west-northwest over the
coming days, with scattered to numerous showers expected as the
trade-wind troughs continue to interact with it.

$$

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