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TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
616 PM ChST Fri Nov 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

Updated Invest 93W in the Tropical and Monsoon Disturbances
section to include the upgrade to Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A tropical disturbance, known as Joint Typhoon Warning Center`s
(JTWC) 92W, is near 15N141E, well west of the Marianas. 92W has
been upgraded to a "low", showing more organization although
tropical cyclone development is unlikely within the next 24 hours.
Widespread cloudiness, numerous showers, and isolated
thunderstorms are spread out within 300 miles of the ill-defined
center, mainly in the southern half of 92W. This disturbance is
expected to continue moving westward, passing west of the AOR on
Sunday.

A tropical disturbance north of Kwajalein, known as JTWC`s 93W,
is near 11N165E and is generating moderate to deep convection and
strong gusts, mainly within the northern half of the system, up to
15N, including the northern Marshall Islands. The Joint Typhoon
Warning Center has upgraded 93W to a Tropical Cyclone Formation
Alert (TCFA), which means development into a tropical cyclone
(tropical depression) is likely within 24 hours. 93W continues to
move northwest and looks to consolidate further as it passes
halfway between Pohnpei and Wake this weekend. There remains a
potential for gusts reaching up to 40 mph for the northern
Marshalls over the next day or two while 93W pushes off northwest,
away from the atolls.

Moving between Chuuk and Pohnpei states, another tropical
disturbance is showing bands of moderate to deep convection
roughly centered near Nukuoro in Pohnpei State around 3N156E. JTWC
has denoted this as Invest 94W and rated "low", meaning tropical
cyclone development is unlikely within 24 hours. 94W is projected
to move "in sync" with 93W as the pair of disturbances move
northwest. The trajectory of 94W is currently favored to pass
southwest of the Marianas, while still strengthening winds and
pulling in more moisture into the region Sunday and into early
next week.

A weak, broad circulation is centered around 8N133E, northwest of
Palau. Little to no convection is found near the center, and the
area of spotty showers to the northwest has eroded overnight. This
continues to open up into a trough and dissipates as nearby 92W
becomes the dominant feature in the area.

For more information on Invests 92W, 93W, and 94W see bulletins
issued by the JTWC under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A broad trade-wind trough is at the leading edge of the trade-wind
surge, mentioned in the section below. Spotty showers are found
along 11N151E to 24N159E. This will continue to propagate west
towards the Marianas in the coming days.

TRADE-WIND SURGE...
Scatterometry reveals an area of moderate to strong trades near
Wake Island, a broad area between 12N and 23N, from 155E to
beyond 180. Outside of some enhanced activity near 93W, scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are observed in this moderate
trade surge, as a result of a tightening pressure gradient
between 93W and the subtropical ridge to the north. This continues
over the next few days before weakening by early next week as the
pressure gradient relaxes over the area.


$$

IC/DS