960
AXPQ20 PGUM 120125
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1125 AM ChST Sat Jul 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
Invest 94W is found near 11N141E, but is not showing a defined
circulation center. Moderate to deep convection with scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are found around the area of 94W.
Invest 94W is expected to slowly drift west with little or no
development expected.

Tropical Storm 06W is centered just outside of the area near 25N141E.
Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are found southeast to
south of the center and along the feeder bands leading into the
storm. Deep convection is seen along one band that extends southwest
to near 18N137E, and a second band that extends south to near
16N143E. 06W is expected to move slowly northeast over the next
couple of days, pulling the associated convection and feeder bands
with it.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

MONSOON TROUGH...
The northern monsoon trough continues to weaken as Tropical Storm 06W
pulls it farther north. Most of the trough is currently north of
25N except for the tail of the trough extending southeast from 06W.
Scattered to numerous showers are found with the trough. As 06W moves
northeast, it is expected to pull the trough and associated
convection with it while the trough continues to weaken.

A new, developing monsoon trough is evident farther south, extending
east from a weak circulation centered just east of the Philippines,
entering the area near 10N130E. The trough then extends east into
Invest 94W near 11N141E, then turns southeast to end near 8N146E.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found mainly south
of the trough over Palau and Yap Proper. The monsoon trough looks to
continue to develop over the coming days.

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
Several trade-wind troughs are evident across the region. The first
is found to the east of the Marianas, extending northeast from near
10N145E to 13N148E. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
seen west of the trough, across the Marianas. This trough looks to
move northwest to north over the next couple of days.

The next trough is found west of Weno, Chuuk, extending north-
northwest from near 2N151E to near 9N149E. Scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident west of the trough. A
weak area of high pressure to the west of the trough will push the
trough southwest over the next couple of days, with increasing
convection west of the trough as convergence in the area increases.

The next trough is slightly farther east, seen between Pohnpei and
Chuuk, extending northeast from near 2N153E to near 8N156E. This
trough is interacting with the ITCZ to generate numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms east through south of Weno. The trough looks
to move west over the next 24 hours before turning southwest.

The last trade-wind trough is seen just east of Kosrae, extending
northeast from near 3N163E to near 7N167E. This trough is also
interacting with the ITCZ to generate numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms near Kosrae to Pohnpei. The trough will continue to
progress west over the coming days, maintaining enhanced convection
along the ITCZ.

TUTT...
The TUTT enters the area near 24N180, extending west-southwest into a
TUTT cell centered near 21N171E, then continues west-southwest to end
near 20N157E. Patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms are found
with the TUTT cell northeast of Wake Island. The TUTT looks to remain
quasi-stationary as the TUTT cell slowly drifts west.

...ITCZ...
The ITCZ remains active, extending east-northeast from southeast of
Weno, Chuuk to end near 10N180. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen along the ITCZ, with the areas of numerous
showers found where the ITCZ is interacting with trade-wind troughs.
The ITCZ looks to remain active over the coming days as it meanders
around eastern Micronesia, possibly pushing into Chuuk.

$$

Kleeschulte