Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
422 FXZS60 NSTU 100101 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 201 PM SST Wed Apr 9 2025 .DISCUSSION... Potential thunderstorm activity and numerous passing showers continue to move across the territory throughout the day. This weather pattern will likely remain for tonight through at least Saturday, as a high pressure system to the south continues to produce gentle to moderate easterlies along the area. Models are showing an increase in easterlies to a fresh breeze on Thursday through Saturday night, bringing a consistent flow of showers and possible thunderstorms for this time frame. By late Saturday through Sunday, models are showing a surface trough to the north migrating closer and over the territory, increasing the potential for flash flooding conditions with thunderstorms and gusty winds. Once the trough passes the area by late Sunday, showers and winds will also decrease. Thus, expect numerous to widespread showers with possible thunderstorms and moderate easterlies for tonight increasing to fresh breeze on Thursday through Saturday night. Winds will decrease thereafter as the potential for showers remains high. && .Marine... PacIOOS buoy observations from the east and west sides of Tutuila Island show seas around 5 to 7 feet with shorter peak periods to the east and longer periods to the west. With the longer periods lingering to the west side, surfs and currents are likely higher and stronger on this side of the island compared to the east side. Nonetheless, model data is showing a south swell reaching coastal areas by late Thursday through at least Saturday night. This conincides with easterly winds increasing to a fresh breeze by this time frame, and may prompt an advisory for small crafts and high surfs. Additionally, with the aforementioned trough moving closer and over the area, instability will likely increase the potential for thunderstorms, producing gusty winds at times. Will continue to monitor as more data becomes available. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ JTAllen