Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
116 FXZS60 NSTU 230119 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 219 PM SST Fri Aug 22 2025 .DISCUSSION... A surface trough which prompted a flood watch in the last 24 hours has migrated south and will continue to move away from the area. No other significant feature will pose any threat to the islands as fair weather conditions will likely remain for the rest of the day and into the weekend. This scenario is shown on the latest satellite imageries with a break in the sky and little to no thunderstorm activity in proximity. Also shown on the satellite imageries are embedded open-cell cumuli clouds in the easterly flow moving across the area. These clouds are mainly associated with a high pressure system over New Zealand, migrating east. The nature of these clouds under the right conditions, are also prone to producing brief but heavy showers from time to time in the mountainous areas. This high pressure system is also generating the moderate to fresh (15 to 20 mph) easterlies over the area. Thus, expect isolated to scattered showers for the short term forecast period. Nonetheless, model data is suggesting that as the high pressure system moves east, the aforementioned trough will move further south and away from the area. Moderate to fresh easterlies will likely maintain its strength into the new week, also aiding in keeping the trough away. The long term weather patterns will heavily be determined by the conditions on a day to day basis as model performance decreases after 3 days. In general, scattered to numerous showers with moderate to fresh easterlies will dominate weather patterns for the remainder of the forecast period. && .Marine... Observations from the PacIOOS buoys (Aunu`u and King-Poloa) show characteristics of enhanced surfs and strong rip currents. Wave heights of 7 to 9 feet with 12 to 14 second periods together with moderate to fresh breeze will likely maintain rough and choppy conditions across the coastal waters through the rest of the week. This is further supported by the latest model data all through the end of the forecast period. Winds will also remain around a fresh breeze through the new week. Hence, the advisories for small crafts and high surfs will remain in effect for the rest of the forecast period. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen