Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
511 FXZS60 NSTU 050037 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 137 PM SST Tue Feb 4 2025 .DISCUSSION... Fair weather conditions continue to embrace the territory throughout the day. A streak of high temperatures peaking in the lower 90s in the last few days will likely continue for the rest of the week with a slight chance of passing showers over time. Relative humidity values have been around 60% to 70% for the afternoon hours, placing heat indices below heat advisory thresholds (115 F). However, this does not rule out any higher temperatures and heat indices elsewhere on island. The latest satellite imageries show an active South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) south and west of the area, with low pressure systems embedded within. These low pressure systems will have no impact to the territory and its area of responsibility (AOR-300 nm from Pago Pago). These conditions are also consistent with a La Nina phase as forecasted for this period for this hurricane season. Also shown on the satellite imageries is a dry air mass associated with the ridge over the area. This dry air mass will remain over the territory for tonight through at least Thursday night. These conditions are also reflected on the upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (05/00Z) with a stable atmospheric profile. Expect isolated to scattered showers with light and variable winds for tonight through Thursday night. Furthermore, model projections show the SPCZ remaining south of the area for the rest of the forecast period. By Friday through the end of the forecast period, a gentle to moderate easterly flow will move into the area. This easterly wind flow will bring embedded brief passing showers for this time frame. There is a low potential for any tropical development within the AOR for the next 7 days. && .Marine... Calm and serene ocean conditions remain for the area. Data from the PacIOOS buoys to the east and west of Tutuila Island are reporting sea heights as low as 3 to 5 feet with periods around 13 to 15 seconds long. These heights and periods are converted to surfs of around 5 to 7 feet high, well below the advisory thresholds for high surfs and small crafts. Model data suggests that these heights will remain for the rest of the day and gradually build to 5 to 7 feet tonight through the rest of the forecast period. However, gentle to moderate easterlies approaching the islands early Friday through the end of the week may slightly enhance seas for this time frame. Otherwise, model data shows no significant swell expected to impact American Samoa coastal waters for this forecast period. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ JTAllen