467
FXZS60 NSTU 230101
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
201 PM SST Sat Feb 22 2025

.DISCUSSION...
A line of convections moving in from the north will continue to
bring showers, heavy at times with gusty winds over the islands
for the next couple of hours. These convections are reflective of
the atmospheric profile shown on the upper air observations (RAOB)
from this afternoon (23/00Z). However, after this round, the
threat of flooding and strong gusty winds will continue to
decrease as a drier air mass associated with a ridge of high
pressure to the north will move over the islands tonight, and
remain for the rest of the forecast period. Also, the ASCAT swaths
from earlier today show moderate to fresh northerly winds moving
into the area. Thus, prompting the cancellation of the wind
advisory.

The latest satellite imageries show the South Pacific Convergence
Zone (SPCZ) slowly moving south and away from the territory.
Tropical Depression 09F (TD09F-TC19P) centered approximately 2024
miles west of Pago Pago shows intensification and more
organization at its center. Models show that TD09F will continue
to move south as it pulls the north and west portion of the SPCZ
in toward the center. This scenario will help move the moisture in
the area, away from the territory. The east-southeast portion of
the SPCZ is now being pulled in by the TD08F to the far southeast
as it becomes a subtropical system.

Model projections show the aforementioned ridge building over the
area through the new week. This feature will dominate weather
patterns for the rest of the forecast period. Therefore, expect
moderate east-northeast winds with passing showers for the long
term period.

&&

.Marine...
Combined seas of 8 to 10 feet are reported from the PacIOOS buoy
near Aunu`u. However, model data show seas and surfs on a gradual
subsiding trend througout the forecast period. Higher surfs are
especially noticable at the north facing shores. Also reported are
north winds gusting at times, with the potential to enhance surfs.
Strong rip currents are also very likely to happen during
transition times between the tides. Favorable conditions are
expected for the new week.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
A Wind Advisory is cancelled.
A High Surf Advisory remains in effect.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.
A Flood Watch remains in effect through tonight.

&&

$$

JTAllen