Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 090154
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
254 PM SST Fri Nov 8 2024

.Discussion...
Latest satellite data shows showers embedded within the trough
from previous forecasts migrating southward. Model trends suggests
the aforementioned trough lingering in the region through the
weekend. However, the strength of the trough will vary depending
on its position. For this reason, expect showers to diminish in
the area tonight as it moves slightly south, then increase
tomorrow morning to numerous when it moves back north. A gentle
breeze will remain through Saturday before building to 10 to 20
mph Saturday afternoon as a ridge behind the trough briefly
extends over the territory.

Thereafter, the trough will move further south on Sunday. However,
models diverge Sunday night as the ECMWF brings widespread
showers with another round of moisture, while the GFS model shows
scattered showers through the new week as the build of the
moisture is focused more south. Will continue to monitor how this
plays out as we are not confident in the potential for flooding
at this time. However, expect east winds to become light and
variable Sunday night through Tuesday as the ridge recedes in the
area.

Thereafter, trade winds will build from the east due to a strong
high pressure system to the south. Breezy winds and scattered
showers will persist through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
A small craft advisory remains in effect even as winds and seas
have subsided in the area. This is due to another increasing trend
for winds expected on Saturday. However, ideal ocean conditions
will follow Sunday through Tuesday as winds become light and
variable.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

TM