598
FXZS60 NSTU 161755
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
655 AM SST Thu Oct 16 2025

.Update...

Satellite imagery this morning shows a strengthening trough to the
north and west of the American Samoa islands. Only minor changes
in wind speeds were made in this morning`s forecast compared to
yesterday`s discussion. The trough is forecast to move over the
islands during the day on Friday. There is high confidence in
above average rainfall from Friday through the weekend. We are
monitoring the potential for flash flooding during this time.

.Previous discussion... /issued 216 PM SST Wed Oct 15 2025/

Short term...

Satellite imagery from this morning and early afternoon shows high
pressure over the region to give a mix of sun and clouds over the
American Samoa islands. However, a trough to the north is
beginning to strengthen and is expected to move over the islands
for Friday and this weekend.

As the aforementioned high pressure begins to move further away
from the islands on Thursday, winds are forecast to decrease to
around 10 to 15 mph. More clouds are anticipated, compared to
today, but the risk of passing showers remain in the scattered
showers category (50% chance).

By Friday, cloudy skies are expected as the trough moves closer to
the region. The risk of showers are upgraded to numerous showers
(70% chance). Easterly winds increase back to 15 to 20 mph
overnight and into Saturday. By late Friday night through the
weekend, the trough is forecast to bring widespread rainfall
throughout the American Samoa islands. Cloudy skies are expected
during this time. Winds may become east/northeasterly on Sunday,
but higher gusts are possible. Confidence in above average
rainfall during this time period is high.

Long term...

For Monday into the middle of the week next week, we will monitor
the location of the aforementioned trough. At this time, it is
expected to be at least near the territorial islands. However, the
trough is also expected to weaken. Easterly decrease to around 10
to 15 mph with more clouds than sun during the day.

Marine...

With the long fetch moderate to fresh easterly breeze, choppy
elevated seas continue throughout the American Samoa coastal
waters. Winds are anticipated to decrease to around 10 to 15 knots
on during the day on Thursday, which may cause seas to ease to
Small Craft Advisory levels by the afternoon. A trough is
anticipated to move over the waters on Friday through the weekend.
As this happens, seas are expected to build to 6 to 8 feet for
Friday night through Saturday night before easing to 5 to 7 feet
as the easterly breeze decreases. However, higher wind gusts are
possible near potentially heavy rainfall throughout the entire
weekend.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

&&

$$

LaPlante