Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
006 FXZS60 NSTU 070051 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 151 PM SST Mon Oct 6 2025 .Discussion... The trough that brought flash flooding last night has since weakened over the area. However, the environment remains strongly unstable as seen in today`s RAOB sounding. This will favor the potential for flash flooding later this evening and tonight as a cold front moves closer to the area, providing the surface convergence needed for widespread shower and potential thunderstorm development. The convection along the cold front is most active further south. However, this afternoon convection has been seen devloping further north with greater intensity, supporting that flash flooding could be a threat tonight. As a result a Flood Watch has been issued. Rain is expected to continue Tuesday, but flash flooding is less likely as the potential heavy rainfall tonight and cooler air mass should help to stabilize the environment. However, Wednesday and Thursday another trough embedded within the trade wind flow could once again bring widespread showers with the possibility of thunderstorms and flash flooding. Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch is in effect through at least Thursday. Winds out of the east to southeast will increase to breezy at up to 25 mph Wednesday and slightly decrease over the weekend. Moisture convergence will remain over the area continuing the rainy pattern throughout the entire forecast period, but the flash flooding threat is expected to decrease after Thursday. && .Marine... Seas have been steady in the 5 to 7 foot range for the past few days, but this will soon change. Seas will start increasing by Tuesday night. By Wednesday, development of a fresh breeze is expected to drive large and choppy wind-driven waves of 8 to 10 feet. These rough and choppy seas will then remain throughout the remainder of the forecast periods, as the fresh breeze persists through at least Friday. Heavy showers and thunderstorms may lead Tuesday into to larger and more unpredictable waves at times. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch && $$ Barton