249
FXZS60 NSTU 140104
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
204 PM SST Wed Aug 13 2025

.Short term [tonight through Friday night]...
A mix of sunshine and fair-weather cumulus clouds has been
observed at WSO Pago Pago today. A thin line of showers has been
observed on satellite to the north of the territory. Troughing
will grow in intensity and size late Thursday into early Friday
as surface convergence becomes stronger. The ECMWF model depicts
lightning in the area on Thursday night. At this time, the
threats for thunderstorms and flash flooding remain low, but
could increase in future forecasts. By Friday afternoon to
evening, the easterly flow will turn out of the north to
northeast. This northerly flow will push the trough south and out
of the area by late Friday into Friday night.

.Long term [Saturday through Wednesday]...
A gentle to moderate trade wind flow out of the east to southeast
takes over this weekend. Winds will increase to a fresh flow for
the new week with strong gusts possible. Scattered to numerous
showers embedded in the trade wind flow are expected.

&&

.Marine...
Latest observations from the Aunu`u PacIOOS buoy show wave heights
around 5 to 6 feet, which is well below small craft advisory
levels of 8 feet. However, a high surf advisory is in effect for
south-facing shores as peak periods of 15 seconds suggests a
strong south swell lingers in the area. With these strong swells,
high surfs that could wash debris on roadways and strong rip
currents are possible.

Additionally, another south swell, stronger than the current one
was expected to arrive this afternoon. These swells were forecast
to reach near 20 second periods, however, it is not yet observed
at the buoys. For this reason, we are currently monitoring buoy
data to determine if a high surf advisory will continue through
Thursday morning, when swells are expected to finally subside.

Winds reaching 20 knots Thursday may prompt a small craft
advisory. However, rough ocean conditions could be brief as the
aforementioned trough moves in the area Thursday night and
diminishes windspeed. By the weekend, expect calm ocean
conditions as winds and seas decrease.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory

&&

$$

Barton/Meredith