Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
732 FXZS60 NSTU 080047 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 147 PM SST Mon Sep 7 2026 .DISCUSSION... A surface trough just north and east of the area will continue to move closer to the territory, tonight. This has the potential to increase showers for the next 12 to 16 hours. However, the latest model data, upper air observations (RAOB), and satellite imageries, show stable and dry atmospheric conditions remaining over the islands for tonight through at least midweek. Also, the moderate to fresh (15 to 20 mph) easterlies will aid in pushing the associated clouds further west, only posing a minor threat of brief showers over the area from time to time. By Thursday into the weekend, winds will slightly decrease as it turns southeast. Additionally, the high pressure system to the south will move further east as another high pressure system from the southwest migrates east. This will allow the aforementioned trough to move over the islands and southeast winds to slightly increase again to a fresh breeze. Thus, expect an increase in showers and winds by the end of the forecast period. && .Marine... Observations from the PacIOOS buoys show heights within the small craft advisory threshold (8 feet and/or 20 knots). Model data show these heights remaining for tonight through at least Tuesday night. By midweek, seas are projected to subside to more favorable conditions. However, by the end of the forecast period (Saturday), model data shows a large south-southwest swell moving into the area, likely building seas again to advisory criteria. In the meantime, the threat for small crafts remains in effect. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen