306
FXZS60 NSTU 120101
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
201 PM SST Tue Feb 11 2025

.Discussion...
The ridge from previous forecasts is continuing to weaken in the
area as a trough develops to the southwest. The hot temperatures
expected for yesterday and today, due to the ridge, did not
materialize as anticipated. This is because the passing showers
and clouds, which resulted in a cooling effect.

Recent satellite data shows a subtle line of clouds extending from
Wallis and Futuna towards French Polynesia. This feature marks the
trough, which is forecast to move into the American Samoa region
on Wednesday. Expect an increase in showers and winds Wednesday
night, with model data indicating widespread showers from Thursday
through Friday night.

Following this, the ridge to the east is expected to strengthen,
which will push the trough slightly southward. A brief break in
showers is anticipated on Saturday as this transition takes place.
However, the trough is forecast to become more active as it moves
over the territory from Sunday through Tuesday.

Looking ahead, weather conditions are expected to worsen next week
through at least midweek, with a possibility of Tropical Cyclone
activity. Additionally, wind positioning from the northwest
Sunday may elevate winds, already forecast to be advisory
thresholds (25 mph or higher), to warning thresholds (34 mph or
higher) in areas like the Pago Pago Harbor. Please note that
confidence in the long-term forecast is low at this time. We will
continue to monitor the forecasts and update it as needed.

&&

.Marine...
Smooth sailing conditions are observed over open waters as winds
remain light and variable. Wave heights of 4 to 6 feet reported
at the PacIOOS buoys reflects the calm seas. Expect no
significant winds or swells through tonight before seas gradually
increase Wednesday. Winds of 15 knots forecast for Wednesday
through Friday may cause choppy seas, but remain below small
craft advisory thresholds (wave height of 8 feet + and/or winds
of 20 knots or higher). However, these conditions may still be a
nuisance for mariners. Furthermore, seas may subside briefly
Saturday, before building Sunday following enhancing trend for
winds.

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None

&&

$$

TM