514
FXZS60 NSTU 020111
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
211 PM SST Mon Sep 1 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Fair weather conditions has been observed throughout the day as
reflected on the latest satellite imageries. Brief showers have
also been moving across the islands from time to time. These
conditions are expected to build or increase throughout the week.
The moderate east-southeast winds will increase to a fresh breeze,
and bringing more moisture over the islands. Satellite imageries
show an active trough line to the north-northeast. Model data
shows a strong high pressure system to the south, pushing a line
of clouds to the south, northward, and merging with the
aforementioned trough over the area by Tuesday afternoon. As this
scenario plays out, the potential for showers and winds will
likely increase over the islands. The high pressure system to the
south will turn winds southeast as it increases. Models are
showing winds remaining at moderate to fresh from the east for
tonight through early Wednesday, turning southeast by Wednesday
afternoon through at least Thursday night.

By the end of the week, the aforementioned high pressure system
center will be southeast of the area, changing winds east as it
decreases to a gentle to moderate wind flow, allowing more showers
to remain over the islands. By the new week, model data is showing
a low pressure system to the southwest moving south of the area,
turning winds northeast and bringing in more moisture over the
islands. Thus, expect more wind and rain for this forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
Seas have remained calm with a gentle to moderate east-southeast
wind flow throughout the day. However, these conditions are
gradually changing as winds are slowly increasing. Model data show
east-southeast winds increasing to a fresh breeze, potentially
reaching a strong breeze throughout the week, and eventually
enhancing seas and surfs. Seas at the PacIOOS Aunu`u buoy are
around 4 to 6 feet with periods less than 10 seconds while data
from the King-Poloa buoy have heights around 3 to 5 feet with
periods around 13 seconds long. Although heights are below
advisory thresholds for both buoys, the long periods at the King
Poloa buoy poses a low rip current risk on the southwest to west
facing shores. These conditions will continue to change as winds
pick up throughout the forecast period. Expect seas and surfs to
build to advisory levels starting tonight. Will continue to
monitor conditions as the week progresses. In the meantime, a
small craft advisory is in effect due to increasing winds.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen