Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
183 FXZS60 NSTU 040059 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 159 PM SST Sun Aug 3 2025 .DISCCUSION... The latest satellite imageries continue to show waves of open- cell cumuli clouds associated with a high pressure system to the southwest, moving across the islands throughout the day. Very minimal showers in passing form will accompany these waves of clouds. Upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (04/00Z) also supports these conditions over the islands. Gentle to moderate south winds will continue for the day, turning southeast overnight tonight, then east on Monday through at least Wednesday morning. Expect an even mix of clouds and sunshine for the rest of the day through at least Tuesday. Model data is showing a trough from the east-northeast moving over the islands by early Wednesday, increasing the potential for showers. The trough is expected to continue to move south- southwest and away from the area by late Wednesday night as it dissipates. By this time frame, a weak low pressure system will move south of the area as it turns winds northeast late Wednesday, becoming light and variable over the territory on Thursday through Friday. By Friday afternoon through the rest of the week, model solutions are showing another high pressure system from the southwest, increasing and turning winds southeast at a moderate breeze. Expect scattered showers for the rest of the forecast period. There are no other significant synoptic features shown for this forecast period. && .Marine... Observations from the PacIOOS buoy to the west (King-Poloa) of Tutuila Island is reporting wave heights around 7 to 9 feet with periods more than 13 seconds long. Data shown on the PacIOOS buoy near Aunu`u (east of Tutuila) show heights below advisory levels. These conditions align well with the latest model data showing a south to southwest swell currently over the area. Models show that this large swell will keep seas and surfs elevated for tonight through at least Thursday. Also, strong rip currents are enhanced when periods are more than 10 seconds long. A gentle to moderate south breeze will remain for tonight turning southeast overnight through at least Monday afternoon. Winds will then turn east by late Monday afternoon through early Wednesday. Hence, a high surf advisory was issued earlier in the day. A small craft advisory also remains in effect. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen