Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
671 FXZS60 NSTU 110100 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 200 PM SST Mon Aug 10 2026 .Short term [tonight through Wednesday night]... The Wind Advisory was cancelled prior to issuance of this morning`s forecasts. Surface observations and satellite wind estimate (ASCAT) data continue to indicate a ridge and its strong trade winds shifting eastward away from the American Samoa islands. The moisture axis that brought enhanced trade wind showers yesterday has since shifted northward, leading to a more stable atmospheric profile, as seen in this afternoon`s 00Z RAOB upper- air observation. This allowed temperatures to increase into the mid 80s today while decreasing the frequency of shower activity. A new ridge developing between Samoa and New Zealand will further stabilize the environment with a strongly dry and stable trade wind inversion. This new ridge will also maintain easterly trade winds flow of around 15 to 20 mph. Therefore expected near or below average rainfall for the short term forecast period with easterly trade winds around 15 to 20 mph. .Long term [Thursday through Monday]... Not much change is expected going into the long term forecast period, as ridging remains in place across the region. This should continue to hold easterly flow across the area. Weakening of the ridge towards the end of the period may bring further decrease to strength of the trade winds, but confidence in this solution is low at this time. Overall, expect rainfall activity to remain limited (near or below average) and easterly flow to persist. && .Marine... With the weakening of trade winds this morning, we have observed seas slowly begin to subside at our PacIOOS buoys. Wave heights should still remain elevated at dangerous levels throughout tonight however, at over 10 feet. This is maintaining borderline Warning level surf conditions. Therefore, we have decided to continue the High Surf Warning through at least this evening, and potentially through the overnight hours dependent upon observations. Large breaking waves and increase potential for rip currents remain significant hazards for beachgoers this afternoon. Marine and surf conditions will then slowly improve through the week, but should remain above Advisory levels through at least late week. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Warning remains in effect. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. && $$ Barton