718
FXZS60 NSTU 300149
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
249 PM SST Wed Jul 29 2026

.Short term...

Cloudy skies remained over the American Samoa islands throughout
the morning hours with most locations not receiving any rainfall.
Throughout the afternoon, satellite imagery is showing the trough
becoming disorganized over the territory and moving northward
while southeasterly winds have increased to 15 to 20 mph with
higher gusts.

This shows us that the high pressure system to the southwest of
the islands is now pushing the trough northward and is
responsible for increased tradewinds over the territory. Clouds
are forecast to decrease to partly cloudy skies, but the
southeasterly winds are still expected to bring below average
temperatures through Friday. Winds will likely remain around 20
mph throughout this time. Rainfall is projected to be below
average. If rainfall occurs, it would be in the passing form.

.Long term...

By Friday night and into the weekend, the aforementioned high
pressure system is to move away from the islands. This is forecast
to decrease winds over the territory, while increasing the risk of
showers. Previously model guidence showed the possibility of a
trough moving close to American Samoa, but now appears that it
will be well to the east and south of the islands. Showers are
not anticipated to be heavy enough to cause flash flooding, if
rain occurs. Otherwise, more sun than clouds are expected with
temperatures around average.

By early next week, models show another high pressure system to
the southwest to develop but it is not to be as strong as the high
pressure system currently moving into the region. Therefore,
southeasterly trades are to be around 15 to 20 mph. The risk of
rain increases, but severe weather is not expected and showers
would be in the passing form.

&&

.Marine...

As the southeasterly trades increase this morning, seas have been
building. The latest information from the PacIOOS buoy to the east
of Aunu`u shows seas over 8 feet while the buoy to the west at 7
to 8 feet. Seas are expected to be rough through Friday as the
fresh southeasterly trades remain. Even though the southerly swell
periods decrease, the surf along the southern coast are still
anticipated to be on the lower levels of the High Surf Advisory
through at least Friday.

By Friday night and into the weekend, trades decrease and seas
heights are forecast to slowly ease. Conditions may fall to below
Small Craft Advisory levels by Sunday and early Monday. However, a
moderate to fresh southeasterly tradewind is anticipated for early
next week.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

&&

$$

LaPlante