Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
583 FXZS60 NSTU 170101 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 201 PM SST Wed Sep 16 2026 .Discussion... Westerly winds continue to steer a trough located west of the Samoa Islands towards the island chain. Latest satellite observations indicate showers developing over Upolu and Savai`i as the trough moves into the area. However, the trough appears to have weakened since this morning, so the risk of flash flooding remains low. Nonetheless, this afternoon`s upper air sounding depicts a moist and unstable profile, suggesting that periods of heavy rainfall remain possible. Model guidance suggests the trough will linger in the area through the new week. Expect brief, passing showers during this timeframe, with periods heavy rainfall possible. Light and variable winds will persist through the forecast period. .Marine... Wave heights observed at the PacIOOS buoy are around 7 to 9 feet, currently exceeding forecasted values. Expect elevated seas to persist through Thursday as a high pressure system to the south continues to generate breezy winds nearby. As the high tracks eastward, seas should gradually subside Thursday night. Light and variable winds expected over the weekend should allow seas to remain relatively calm. Additionally, a strong south swell remains evident across coastal waters, with observations indicating peak periods near 15 seconds. Model guidance suggests the swell will subside by Thursday night and continue to diminish through the weekend as it exits the region. However, another strong southwest swell is expected to move into the area by Monday. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ TM