Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
216 FXZS60 NSTU 170108 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 208 PM SST Sat Aug 16 2025 .DISCUSSION... Satellite imageries show a trough to the east of the islands. This trough is expected to increase the potential for showers for the next 24 hours as east winds increase and push it further west. A broad high pressure system to the south will likely produce moderate to fresh east to southeast winds with embedded showers after the aforementioned trough passes the area by Sunday evening. Expect scattered to numerous showers with gentle to moderate easterlies for tonight increasing to a fresh breeze by Sunday through the midweek. By Wednesday night, model data is showing another high pressure system to the west-southwest moving east, producing southeast winds merging with the easterlies from the first high pressure system. These two synoptic features will keep breezy conditions across the territory through the end of the forecast period. By Friday, model data is showing a low pressure system embedded within a trough to the northwest-north, moving over the Fiji Islands and further southeast as it pulls in moisture from the north-northeast. This will likely increase the potential for showers as well. However, will continue to monitor later model runs as they become available. In the meantime, expect scattered to numerous showers with moderate to fresh east-southeast winds throughout this forecast period. && .Marine... Observation of seas remaining below advisory thresholds have been favorable for water recreational activities and mariners alike. Data from the PacIOOS buoys reflects these conditions across the coastal waters. Model data show seas building to advisory thresholds by Sunday morning as winds begin to increase to a fresh east breeze. Seas will likely remain in advisory levels throughout the new week as winds are also projected to peak at a strong breeze. Should there be a delay in winds reaching a fresh breeze by Sunday, seas will likely remain below advisory levels. Otherwise, expect water conditions to be choppy and rough during this forecast period possibly reaching advisory thresholds. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ JTAllen