448
FXZS60 NSTU 050134
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
234 PM SST Fri Jul 4 2025

.Short term...

Cloudy skies and rainy conditions are expected to continue
throughout the afternoon as a trough from a low pressure system
well to the east of Rose Atoll extends westward over the American
Samoa islands. Breezy conditions persist due to a ridge of high
pressure to the south interacts with the trough. Even though
breezy conditions are forecast to continue until around midday
tomorrow, wind speeds are expected to decrease to below Wind
Advisory conditions by around midnight tonight.

The aforementioned high is to move further away from the region to
decrease wind speeds, but the trough is to remain in the area for
Saturday. Widespread rainfall is forecast to decrease to numerous
showers throughout the day. Confidence is not high in terms of
the frequency and the amount of rainfall expected, but showers are
still anticipated. Winds decrease to around 10 mph by tomorrow
night. The trough may move south as early as Saturday night and
remains south on Sunday, but moving back over the islands around
Sunday night.

Overall, rainfall is likely to remain above average for the
weekend. Even though flash flooding is not likely, flooding may in
advisory levels at times with ponding on roadways.

.Long term...

Another low to the south is anticipated to bring another trough
over the region by early in the upcoming week. A trough is likely
to maneuver over the islands at times, which could give periodic
rainfall pending on the exact location. However, we are not
expecting rainfall to be heavy enough to cause flash flooding.
A high pressure to the south, which is anticipating to strengthen
throughout the weekend. Therefore, the return of breezy
southeasterly winds are likely from mid to late week.

&&

.Marine...

Rough seas and high surf continue due to a strong southeasterly
breeze with long fetch to the southeast of the islands. Surf is
anticipated to remain in the warning levels through around midday
Saturday along the southern and eastern shores, while advisory
levels remain on the northern and western shores. Winds are to
slowly decrease throughout the day.

For the next 5 days, seas are to slowly ease but still remaining
in the Small Craft Advisory criteria. Seas may reach up to 15 feet
at times early tomorrow and are to slowly ease through the middle
of the week, but still in the 6 to 8 range by midweek.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A High Surf Warning remains in effect through Saturday for the
southern and eastern shores.
A Wind Advisory remains in effect through tonight.
A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through Sunday.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

&&

$$

LaPlante