


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
448 FXZS60 NSTU 050134 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 234 PM SST Fri Jul 4 2025 .Short term... Cloudy skies and rainy conditions are expected to continue throughout the afternoon as a trough from a low pressure system well to the east of Rose Atoll extends westward over the American Samoa islands. Breezy conditions persist due to a ridge of high pressure to the south interacts with the trough. Even though breezy conditions are forecast to continue until around midday tomorrow, wind speeds are expected to decrease to below Wind Advisory conditions by around midnight tonight. The aforementioned high is to move further away from the region to decrease wind speeds, but the trough is to remain in the area for Saturday. Widespread rainfall is forecast to decrease to numerous showers throughout the day. Confidence is not high in terms of the frequency and the amount of rainfall expected, but showers are still anticipated. Winds decrease to around 10 mph by tomorrow night. The trough may move south as early as Saturday night and remains south on Sunday, but moving back over the islands around Sunday night. Overall, rainfall is likely to remain above average for the weekend. Even though flash flooding is not likely, flooding may in advisory levels at times with ponding on roadways. .Long term... Another low to the south is anticipated to bring another trough over the region by early in the upcoming week. A trough is likely to maneuver over the islands at times, which could give periodic rainfall pending on the exact location. However, we are not expecting rainfall to be heavy enough to cause flash flooding. A high pressure to the south, which is anticipating to strengthen throughout the weekend. Therefore, the return of breezy southeasterly winds are likely from mid to late week. && .Marine... Rough seas and high surf continue due to a strong southeasterly breeze with long fetch to the southeast of the islands. Surf is anticipated to remain in the warning levels through around midday Saturday along the southern and eastern shores, while advisory levels remain on the northern and western shores. Winds are to slowly decrease throughout the day. For the next 5 days, seas are to slowly ease but still remaining in the Small Craft Advisory criteria. Seas may reach up to 15 feet at times early tomorrow and are to slowly ease through the middle of the week, but still in the 6 to 8 range by midweek. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... A High Surf Warning remains in effect through Saturday for the southern and eastern shores. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through tonight. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. && $$ LaPlante