810
FXZS60 NSTU 290128
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
228 PM SST Tue Jul 28 2026

.Short term...

Satellite imagery continues to show a stubborn trough remaining
over the American Samoa islands. This has led to cloudy skies with
on and off rain showers during the morning and early afternoon
hours. South/southeasterly winds have increased to around 15 to 20
mph at the airport.

During this afternoon, the trough is beginning to show signs of
weakening. Numerous showers are forecast tonight, but gradually
decreasing as the trough continues to weaken throughout the day
tomorrow. By tomorrow evening, clouds will likely become partly
cloudy with a southeasterly breeze reaching up to 25 mph. If any
showers occur, it would be in the passing form.

By Thursday and Friday, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to be
over the islands to give more sun than clouds during the day with
cooler temperatures. The southeasterly trades are to remain,
reaching up to 20 mph.

.Long term...

By Friday evening and the upcoming weekend, models indicate a
developing low pressure system well to the south of the islands.
The trough from the low may reach as far north as American Samoa.
This would increase rainfall to numerous showers. However, this
depends on the exact location and strength of the low pressure
system. If this is weaker or positioned further away from the
islands, the risk of rainfall will likely decrease. We will
monitor this development throughout the week. Even if the trough
moves over the territory, flash flooding is not expected. Tradewinds
decrease to around 10 mph.

For the beginning of next week, another string ridge of high
pressure is to move over the region to give south/southeasterly
trades up to 25 mph, cooler weather, and isolated to scattered
rainfall.

&&

.Marine...

The latest data from the PacIOOS buoys to the east of Aunu`u and
to the west of Tutuila show seas building due to increasing trade
winds. Seas are expected to reach up to 9 to 12 feet by Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday. The fresh south/southeasterly trades are
to continue through Thursday before slowly decreasing into the
weekend. As the trades decrease, so will sea heights. Also, a
southerly swell is forecast to continue moving through the
American Samoa coastal waters through early Friday. This will keep
the High Surf Advisories for the southern shores during this time.

Overall, rough seas remain throughout the week. Trades decrease
this weekend. More ideal conditions are anticipated for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

&&

$$

LaPlante