279
FXZS60 NSTU 200842
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
942 PM SST Sat Apr 19 2025

.Update...
The showers to the west of American Samoa mentioned in the
previous discussion have moved close to the territory over the
past several hours. A notable increase in moisture can already be
seen on satellite across the territory, and development of
passing showers ahead of the line has already resulted in
moderate to heavy rainfall across Tutuila. Due to the approaching
line, we will upgrade to widespread showers, heavy at times, for
the remainder of tonight into tomorrow. A Flash Flood Watch is now
in effect for this period. Additionally, lightning has been
observed on satellite, so a few thunderstorms are possible as the
core of the line moves over the territory. Otherwise, the
extended forecast remains the same.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory
Flash Flood Watch

&&

$$

Barton/LaPlante

&&

.Previous discussion... /issued 103 PM SST Sat Apr 19 2025/

Short term...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to diminish, with satellite
data showing less convection west of the Islands compared to
yesterday`s organized trough. Although the flooding risk has
decreased for American Samoa, model data suggests an uptick in
showers tonight through Sunday as showers to the west moves over
the Islands. Hence, numerous showers will remain in the forecast
for this duration. Winds will remain below 15 mph tonight,
decreasing to 10 mph early next week.

Long term...
The aforementioned trough will weaken in the area Monday as a
strong ridge builds near New Zealand. This pattern will shift
winds south by Tuesday, reaching 10 to 15 mph through Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a weak trough is forecast to develop over the Samoa
Island chain, bringing scattered to numerous showers for most of
the new week.

Marine...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect due to seas reaching 8
feet, caused by a southeast swell. Despite light winds, the
advisory is in please do to observed wave heights. These swells
will persist through Wednesday before gradually subsiding.

&&

$$

TM