104
FXUS65 KPIH 271003
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
403 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monsoon moisture remains with a daily chance of light showers
  and thunderstorms through at least midweek

- ABOVE AVERAGE temperatures expected although more dense smoke
  may hold temperatures down several degrees

- Critical to near-critical fire weather conditions in place for
  the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1154 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Monsoon moisture looks to remain in play through midweek. Quite
a bit moisture will be overhead through most of the day, which
will limit thunderstorm potential to mostly areas east of I-15
and isolated in nature. We COULD a few strikes elsewhere
especially if we can get a bit more sunshine this afternoon.
Even if we don`t see a lot of thunderstorms around, virga will
certainly be a potential issue. Gusts may stay under 35 mph
though, as the potential for gusts over 35 mph is limited to
10-20% for today. For Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm potential
is current expected across the South Hill/Albion Mountains and
southeast highlands. More isolated potential exists north of
Idaho Falls toward the Montana border, as well as in the
corridor from Willow Creek Summit to Mackay northeast into
southern Montana. Currently, we are expected less morning cloud
cover and more instability, indicated by an up to 60% chance of
gusts over 35 mph. Our last better chance of showers and storms
will be Wednesday, as a better surge of monsoon moisture impacts
the state. With the potential for more cloud cover at times,
temperatures will be a bit cooler than the past few days with
highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. We may end up cooler than that
for two reasons: any particular day with more early cloud cover
AND dense smoke due to fires in Oregon and southwest Idaho. We
are already seeing that this morning especially from Pocatello
west toward Boise. This will be something to watch as dense
smoke itself may be enough to quell instability and better
chances of showers and storms overall.

Starting Thursday, the ridge shifts back to the west and
potentially southwest. This should cut off the monsoon moisture
for the most part. We could a see a storm or two, but the
pattern is not ideal for continued deeper moisture pushing into
Idaho. This will push us back toward hotter and drier
conditions. By the weekend, highs will likely be pushing 100
again in several areas and increasing HeatRisk impacts across
eastern Idaho.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 401 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Monsoon moisture will remain in place. We are expecting more
than one wave of virga/light showers. Thunderstorm potential
should be held down to isolated coverage, but we may have to
re-evaluate that as we`ve see more lightning that anticipated
across the area overnight. There is only a 10-20% chance for
gusts over 30 kts today. A bigger issue may be MVFR conditions
due to increased smoke from fires in Oregon and southwest Idaho.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1154 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Monsoon moisture remains locked in through Wednesday across
central and eastern Idaho. This will keep some mention of
thunderstorms going through that point. We will continue to see
more dry than wet thunderstorms overall. For today,
thunderstorms appears to be limited due to early morning cloud
cover. The latest thunder potential probabilities isolated
coverage east of I-15, although we may see a storm or two
farther west...where we can get more sunshine. Another
indication of lower instability is the low probability of gusts
over 35 mph, 10-20%. That said, virga is possible anywhere
today with some gusts. Another complicating factor is increasing
smoke from fires in Oregon and southwest Idaho. This may end up
in some areas, especially out west, keeping a lid on warmer
temperatures and more stable conditions. It should remain breezy
especially over the central mountains, portions of the Arco
Desert, and Magic Valley. A RED FLAG WARNING remains in effect
for the Zone 475/476 in the central mountains, although this is
going to be marginal. Early cloud cover may keep us from fully
mixing stronger gusts to the surface later in the day. On the
flip side, virga gusts may help enhance gust potential. Some
gusts, even without virga, with hit 25-30 mph. For Tuesday, the
pattern remains similar, although cloud cover will be less
overall tomorrow. The main push storms will be outside of the
central mountains, although a small corridor is possible across
475 and 476. We may also be close again on critical fire weather
threshold for wind and humidity in those zones. Another deeper
surge of moisture arrives for a better chance of showers and
storms overall.

By Thursday and into the weekend, the ridge shifts west and
potentially even southwest. This should cut off most, if not
all, of the monsoon moisture for a while. This will allow for
very low humidity issues and hotter temperatures to return. At
the moment, we do not have any thunderstorm chances in the
forecast. With hotter temperatures, any amount of moisture that
crosses the state may produce at least some virga if not a
thunderstorm or two.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
IDZ475-476.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes