314
FXUS65 KPIH 092215
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
415 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming temperatures continuing with daytime temperatures 5
  to 10 degrees above normal through Friday.

- Precipitation and colder temperatures return this weekend and
  into early next week!

- 1-3" snowfall anticipated above 6500 ft including passes
  Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery remains rather clear across eastern
Idaho today but this will change significantly over the next
12-24 hours. To our south, already seeing increasing clouds and
precipitation across southern Utah and into Nevada and these
clouds and moisture will move across our region during the
overnight hours and into the day on Friday. Until then, things
will remain quiet with temperatures in the 70s across lower
elevation areas this afternoon. Expecting southerly winds to
increase ahead of the push of clouds and moisture so it`ll
become noticeably breezy shortly. Hi- res CAMs hold off on any
precip chances through about midnight; after that though, precip
chances are in the forecast throughout the day Friday. Not
expecting a washout, but scattered showers, and even a few
thunderstorms, will be possible at any time on Friday. Better
chances exist across the eastern half of the region but still
have at least low-end PoPs across all of the forecast area.
Today and tomorrow look to be the last hurrah for temps in the
70s for......likely awhile - as a more active fall like pattern
looks to take hold over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Weekend continues to look unsettled and cool, with widespread
showers mainly Saturday and Saturday night. 24-hr liquid
precipitation amounts generally highest in the southern and
eastern highlands (0.50-1.00"), and lowest across portions of
the central mountains (0.25-0.50"). Lower end estimates are dry
especially for the Snake Plain and west and still approach 0.50"
liquid in spots across the south and east, but do not believe
this is a realistic scenario. High end estimates approach the
precipitation amounts seen last weekend, well over 1.00" liquid
in the south and east. Probably of greater interest this time of
year, especially to hunters, is expected snowfall as
temperatures begin to drop behind the cold front Saturday. We
currently are not anticipating issuance of any winter-related
headlines, but snow levels drop to 5500-6500 ft by Sunday
morning. NBM deterministic overnight lows are running at the top
end of the probabilistic scale, so have lowered them closer to
the 50th percentile in line with the average snow levels. This
does bring snow to mid slope or below most areas, and higher
elevation locations and passes are likely to see 1-3" snow
accumulation as early as Saturday evening. Even the low-end
probabilistic estimates put light accumulations at pass level
during this period. This does have implications for travelers
Saturday night. Probabilities support a 20-40% chance of amounts
greater than 3" above 6500ft elevation, and a 10-20% chance of
exceeding 3" at Galena, Targhee and Raynolds passes.

Precipitation begins to decrease during the day Sunday as this
shortwave features shifts east of the region, leaving East Idaho
within the base of trough across the PacNW. After weekend
daytime highs in the 40s/lower 50s, the coldest temperatures of
the week appear to be Sunday night/Monday morning. Another
Freeze headline may be necessary to round out the end of the
growing season, which ends October 15 for East Idaho. Southerly
flow redevelops across the region and the trough amplifies along
the coast. Both GFS and ECMWF drop the trough into a closed low
off the California coast trough the remainder of the week.
There is still enough uncertainty to keep East Idaho within the
influence of the trough, keeping at least isolated showers going
through the week. Temperatures moderate slightly, but drop
toward the end of the week back into the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 415 PM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Breezy conditions around this afternoon at most TAF
sites. Expect to lose most of the gusts this evening although will
keep a sustained southerly wind at BYI, IDA, and PIH through the
night. Expect showers to move north overnight tonight tonight and
lift north tomorrow afternoon. Not expecting anything more than VFR
ceilings. Expect redevelopment tomorrow afternoon with high res
models indicating thunderstorm chances looking more likely around
SUN tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Warm and dry conditions today with showers expected tonight
through Sunday with some drying Monday and showers again Tuesday
through Thursday. It will turn sharply colder Saturday behind a
cold frontal passage with the cooler conditions continuing
through next week.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...GK