752
FXUS65 KPIH 281050
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
450 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy afternoon today.

- Afternoon highs 4 to 8 degrees above normal through the
  weekend, and 10 to 15 degrees above normal to start the week.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible by mid week next week with
  monsoonal moisture increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Early morning satellite imagery shows some mid/high level clouds
streaking across the Gem State, mainly across the central mountains
and along the Montana Divide, but a few stray clouds can be found
elsewhere. Things will remain quiet weather-wise through the weekend
as a summertime pattern continues across our area. We will see some
breezy conditions today with a weak shortwave moving well to our
north but it will be enough to tighten the pressure gradient just a
bit. Winds are expected to remain below any headline levels but
winds during the afternoon hours are expected to be in the 15-20 mph
range across the lower valleys of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley.
Likely a touch higher towards Craters and the INL/Arco Desert area
20-25 mph with higher gusts throughout the region. High pressure
begins to build over the area tomorrow which will lead to a
prolonged period of hot, dry weather for eastern Idaho. That being
said, mostly skies are expected for the second half of the weekend
with no precip expected once again. Winds will also lessen for the
latter part of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The high pressure ridge continues to amplify as the workweek begins
with H5 heights climbing over 590+ DM which should translate to
highs in the 90s throughout the lower he elevations with low to mid
90s forecast for Monday, increasing to mid to upper 90s for Tuesday
which looks to be the warmest day of the week ahead. Overnight lows
will likely stay low enough (mid 50s to lower 60s) across the
valleys to negate any heat headlines concerns but will continue to
monitor this over subsequent forecasts. By Wednesday, models show an
upper low moving in to central California which turns the upper flow
more southerly across our area allowing for a bit more moisture to
sneak in, increasing cloud cover, lower temps a touch and bringing
PoPs back in to the forecast. Best precip chances will probably be
focused across the higher terrain but we`ll see how things trend
over the upcoming days and once we`re able to get some hi-res model
guidance for that time period. This type of pattern looks to
continue to round out the work week and into the Independence Day
Holiday weekend so expect the above normal temperatures to stick
around for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 445 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Weak upper level low passing to the north will bring FEW cloud
coverage in the lower and upper cloud layers with SKC developing
everywhere by evening. The more significant condition will be
moderate wind at some locations, mainly KIDA and KPIH where
gusts will rise into the mid-20KT range. Other locations appear
to have sustained to 15KT-18KT range. With the wind not expected
to return without the trough still around to sustain it, wind
should be going light and variable in the early morning hours
for most locations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Weak upper level low pressure moving through the northern Rockies
and into MT will cool afternoon temperatures and raise afternoon
humidity, plus add some cloudiness today, but bring no
precipitation. Also, conditions will be breezy to windy, but staying
below critical fire weather conditions for the Southern Idaho
Dispatch area.

Starting Sun, warming and drying resume, with temperatures really
increasing from Sun to Mon for the afternoons. Atmospheric stability
will also see a trend to more unstable, especially in the area near
the Utah border. While humidity takes significant decrease, the wind
under the strengthening high pressure will decrease strongly and be
more driven by the slope-valley effect.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...Messick