798
FXUS65 KPIH 021002
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
402 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily, isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through Monday, primarily each afternoon. Stronger storms will
  be capable of producing gusty winds, small hail, and brief
  heavy rain.

- Conditions will remain very dry outside of any showers or
  thunderstorms, with near normal to below normal temperatures
  expected through early next week.

- Warmer and dry condition will return midweek under the
  increasing influence of high pressure, before trending cooler
  and breezier late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 142 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Early morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave
troughs working northeast through the PacNW and northern
Rockies, with radar imagery showing isolated showers/virga
passing over southern Idaho. These troughs will keep isolated
shower and thunderstorm chances going through the weekend,
peaking in coverage each afternoon, with best chances for more
scattered coverage staying further north. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage this weekend will peak in areal coverage
today, with stronger storms and outflow boundaries capable of
producing wind gusts up to 50 mph, small hail, and brief heavy
rain. For Sunday, best thunderstorm chances will shift to being
confined in the Central Mountains, Magic/Treasure Valleys, and
Montana Divide as predominantly dry conditions prevail
elsewhere. Temperatures will hold steady through the weekend
with highs in the 70s/80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Under the increasing influence of high pressure building in out
of the south early next week, drier conditions will prevail
further south as a shortwave trough passing over the Continental
Divide supports another round of isolated showers and
thunderstorms on Monday further north in the Central Mountains
and Eastern Highlands. Starting Tuesday, dry conditions are
favored to return regionwide, which will be for the first time
in about two weeks. While temperatures will briefly cool Tuesday
behind the passage of that trough on Monday, near normal to
above normal temperatures will return for Wednesday and Thursday
as dry conditions continue. Ensemble model guidance late next
week shows a series of shortwave troughs working up and over
this broad ridge of high pressure, which while keeping the bulk
of precipitation chances north of our region, will lead to
cooler and breezier conditions to finish out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 402 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Virga will drift through the Magic Valley this morning,
resulting in VCSH at SUN and BYI. The lower clouds and virga
showers are quickly dissipating as they move east. Thunderstorms
this afternoon will most likely not affect TAF sites. Although
a few models show some isolated storms impacting IDA and DIJ.
Otherwise, expect a few gusts to 20 kts at PIH and IDA this
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 142 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Daily, isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Monday, ahead of dry conditions back regionwide starting
Tuesday for the first time in about two weeks. RHs will continue
to remain low in the teens/20s through early to mid next week,
with wind gusts each afternoon outside of any thunderstorm
activity peaking around 25-30 mph, locally higher to around
30-40 mph. As a result, scattered thunderstorm RFWs are not
expected, but we will continue to monitor the potential for
wind/low RH RFWs, with Monday looking like the best day through
mid next week at this time. Temperatures will hold steady
through Monday, cooling on Tuesday, before warming back up for
Wednesday and Thursday under the increasing influence of high
pressure. Ensemble model guidance late next week shows a series
of shortwave troughs working up and over this broad ridge of
high pressure, which while keeping the bulk of precipitation
chances north of our region, will lead to cooler and breezier
conditions to finish out the week.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MacKay
LONG TERM...MacKay
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...MacKay