489
FXUS65 KPIH 022323
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
523 PM MDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spring Warm-up: High pressure will amplify through the
  weekend, pushing temperatures approximately 10 degrees above
  seasonal normals by Sunday and Monday.

- Predominantly Dry: Dry conditions will prevail through the
  weekend for most areas.

- Unsettled conditions return Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM MDT Sat May 2 2026

East Idaho under the influence of ridge axis today, with deep
upper low off the California/Oregon coast. Secondary shortwave
dropping towards Idaho in southern Canada expected to interact
with weakly available moisture wrapping into East Idaho from
coastal low during the day Sunday, with isolated showers/tstorms
across higher elevations. Moving into early week, East Idaho in
semi-split flow pattern between gradually progressive upper low
into the Great Basin and additional energy dropping through
Montana around base of deep closed Canadian low. Enough moisture
should be available for showers and thunderstorms both Monday
and Tuesday, mainly across the southern half of the forecast
area. Consolidated trough slides southeast of the forecast area
Tuesday night, leaving dry northerly flow in place for
Wednesday.

For the remainder of the week into the weekend, ensembles favor
slowly shifting the ridge east but weakening the amplitude
slightly. This could mean reintroducing slight chances of
showers and thunderstorms by Friday over higher elevations,
supported by deterministic NBM. Those chances could increase
slightly into the weekend as the ridge continues to flatten.
Overall temperature trends through the week indicate a warmup.
Lows tonight will be too warm to support any frost or freeze
related headlines, at least for the next few days. There is a
65-75% chance for temperatures to drop below 36 Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning, so that would be the next potential
target for a Frost Advisory. Odds nearly disappear after that
while daytime highs start to see increased potential to near or
exceed 80 as early as Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM MDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout the forecast
period at all sites. Winds have been a bit breezy at times this
afternoon, but will diminish overnight. Clouds will remain FEW to
SCT at the mid and upper levels with a very small chance for some
pop up showers on Sunday afternoon. Given that it`s about a 15
percent chance at SUN, will leave it out of the TAF for now. It is a
less than 15 percent chance at all other sites. Afternoon winds will
again gust to about 20 kts.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...AMM