989
FXUS65 KPIH 042258
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
458 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect showers and thunderstorms today bringing moderate to
  heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small to moderate hail as an
  upper level wave/trough pushes east. Some severe afternoon
  thunderstorms are possible bringing large hail and wind gusts
  over 58 mph.


- Cooler temperatures today and Saturday with highs only in the
  70s and 80s.

- Very dry conditions are expected to return by Sunday and
  continue through next week with an overall warming trend as
  well. Temperatures will return to the 90s and even approaching
  100 for lower elevations by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Main impact will be widespread shower and thunderstorms across
all of southeast Idaho this afternoon and evening with the
potential for hail and strong wind gusts with at least isolated
severe development with hail over 1 inch and winds over 58 mph.
A flash flood watch remains in effect for the Wapiti burn scar
west of Stanley as any strong thunderstorm has potential to dump
a brief heavy rain over the burn site. Expect a dissipation of
any thunderstorm development after 9 pm with improving
conditions overnight. Be aware than any afternoon or early
evening activities today could be impacted by thunderstorms. It
will clear overnight with lows in the 30s and 40s mountains and
40s and 50s valleys. It will remain cool and below normal
Saturday with highs in the 60s and 70s mountains and 80s
valleys. All thunderstorm coverage will be in the eastern
mountains with dry conditions over riding all other areas. Will
have breezy areas Saturday with 10 to 20 mph sustained winds in
the Snake River Plain and eastern Magic Valley with the highest
winds in the Arco Desert.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Long term period will be a low impact period it looks right now.
We have no precipitation in the grids with hot conditions
throughout. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s again on Sunday but
rise to the 80s mountains and 90s valleys by Monday continuing
through Friday. By the middle of next week winds will likely be
in the 10 to 15 mph range across most areas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 453 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Main impacts will be early thunderstorms with biggest threat
mainly at PIH the first hour or so until 01Z and have a tempo
group with wind gusts to 35 knots. Have prob30 groups for
thunderstorms at the other TAF sites until 01 or 02Z with gusts
in the 25 to 35 knot range. Expecting the convection to die
after 03Z this evening with much less thunderstorm coverage
through Saturday. Best shot for convection on Saturday will be
DIJ, but drier air is moving in but left it out of the TAF for
now as think under a 20 percent chance to see one on site.
Expecting to see 10 to 15 knot sustained winds after 18Z
Saturday at all sites with gusts 20 to 25 knots as the drier air
works east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Main impact is scattered to widespread thunderstorm coverage
this afternoon and evening with outflow wind gusts of greater
than 50 mph possible. All zones will at least have that
potential. By Saturday isolated to scattered thunderstorm
coverage will be limited to zones 475, 476, 411 and 413. Next
impact will be a return to hot and dry conditions Monday with
widespread below 15 percent minimum humidity and low elevations
highs well into the 90s and 80s in high elevations.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Expect moderate to heavy rainfall today with showers and
thunderstorms from a trough moving through the area. The Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) has a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall mainly over our northern areas (northern Central
mountains, Lost River Range, the Montana Divide and the northern
Eastern Highlands along the northern Wyoming border). Moderate
to heavy rainfall over the Wapiti Fire burn scar by Stanley
Idaho is expected this morning. Flash flooding and debris flow
caused by excessive rainfall is possible. Models are showing a
better chance of precipitation on the western slopes of the
Sawtooth mountains opposed to the eastern slopes or the Stanley
side. A flash flood watch is in effect until 9 pm this
evening for the Wapiti burn scar. Another round of
precipitation is possible late this afternoon into the early
evening from showers and thunderstorms. Looking at the HREF
model there is a 60% chance of 0.50 inch of precipitation late
this afternoon into the early evening.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...GK
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...GK
HYDROLOGY...TW