720
FXUS65 KPIH 050938
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
238 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night.

A cold front will push through east Idaho this morning. This will
bring the atmospheric river event to an end across the central
mountains. Additional snows today for the central mountains look
light, generally an inch or two. So we`ll allow the warning to
expire at 12z. Snow levels this morning are around or above 6000
feet. Rain is likely this morning for the valleys with snow for the
eastern highlands. Only expecting a few residual showers for the
afternoon as the bulk of the precipitation should head east.
Snowfall amounts across the eastern highlands range from around an
inch in the valleys to 4 inches. Some ridgetops around Island Park
and along the Tetons could see up to 6 inches. Still lower than
criteria for an advisory. Winds look gusty today across the Snake
Plain with sustained winds of 25 mph and gusts to 50 mph likely.
Wind advisory looks solid and will continue that today with winds
expected to weaken this evening. In fact, will likely expand the
advisory into the hills south of Burley. THose areas tend to do very
well in these types of events. Will also expand into Burley although
it looks much more marginal there. The Teton Valley should do well
as well and the forecast supports advisories there. Blowing and
drifting snow could be problematic there but less certain of that,
especially with only an inch or so in the forecast there.

Thursday looks relatively quiet. We will start to see some moisture
from the next storm system that arrives late Thursday night into
Friday. This will result in some light showery precipitation. Snow
accumulations mainly for the mountains and highlands and amounts
look light, generally an inch or so. Winds will be noticeably less
and temps are expected to be closer to normal.

13

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday.
Next Pacific system will move through Idaho on Friday with the
latest models showing a more likely surface low track to the north
through Stanley and Island Park.  The more northern track will
likely lessen amounts in the Magic Valley and southern parts of the
Snake Plain from Burley to Pocatello and the southern mountains.
Will see some snow through Friday night with current grids in the 4
to 8 inch range in the eastern and central mountains.  Around an
inch in the Magic Valley and Lower Snake Plain with 2 to 4 inches
from Idaho Falls to Rexburg.  Could see a few travel impacts and and
also breezy conditions behind the cold frontal passage Friday
afternoon.  Southern areas in the warm sector early will likely keep
snow amounts down.  Highs will be in the 30s with some lower 40s in
lower elevations.  Will see snow end Saturday with lingering showers
in the eastern mountains.  It will turn much colder Saturday wtih
highs in the teens and 20s.  Lows Saturday night single digits above
and below zero to lower teens.  Will have continued cold conditions
Sunday through Wednesday with mainly dry conditions with lows 5 to
10 below in mountains valleys and single digits to low teens
elsewhere.  May see an increase in the chance for snow on Wednesday
with some models showing a Pacific system moving through.  Very high
uncertainty beyond Sunday.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...Today through Tonight.
A strong cold front will move through eastern Idaho this morning and
the main impact will be very strong winds.  Expect sustained 20 to
25 knots winds with gusts 35 to 40 knots at BYI, PIH and IDA out of
the west to southwest after 16Z.  Expect 15 to 20 knot sustained
winds at SUN and DIJ with gusts 25 to 30 knots.  Will have a period
of showers at all sites 12Z to 18Z as well with the potential for
MVFR to IFR conditions at SUN, IDA and DIJ.  Expect conditions to
stay VFR at BYI and PIH.  Winds will diminish after 00Z with VFR
conditions everywhere by then and overnight tonight.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening
for IDZ052>057-065.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST early this morning for
IDZ071>074.

&&

$$