042
FXUS65 KPIH 200417
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1017 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers return this afternoon and evening

- Isolated/scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
  continue into Sunday and Monday as a cold front builds in

- Breezy winds are expected this weekend with strong winds
  moving in Monday where a Wind Advisory will likely be needed

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 500 mb shortwave
trough working southeast through the PacNW and northern Rockies
with increasing cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers as
mostly clear skies and dry conditions prevail across eastern
Idaho out ahead of its arrival. As this trough builds in later
today into tonight, isolated showers will be possible in the
Central Mountains, Eastern Highlands, and Upper Snake River
Plain as conditions remain dry elsewhere heading into Sunday
morning. A more well defined and organized 500 mb trough then
remains on track to build in for Easter Sunday which will not
only support an areawide increase in isolated to scattered
showers but also help to introduce a 10-40% chance of
thunderstorms starting Sunday afternoon/evening that will
continue into Sunday night. Winds will remain elevated this
weekend given the passage of these troughs with gusts peaking
around 25-35 mph today and 25-45 mph on Sunday. Even stronger
winds are expected on Monday as a cold front passes overhead.
Following a cold start this morning courtesy of clear skies and
light winds, temperatures this weekend will trend back to near
normal to above normal levels with highs in the 50s/60s and lows
in the 20s/30s/40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Shortwave feature arrives during the day Monday for an
increased chance of showers/tstorms along with windy conditions
across the Snake Plain. Model means support low end Wind
Advisory for Monday afternoon, with even the 25th percentile NBM
marginal for the lower thresholds. Convection appears confined
to mainly higher elevations along the northern and eastern
portions of the forecast area, decreasing in the latter half of
the day as shortwave axis shifts east of the region. Brief
breezy break on Tuesday with flat transitory ridge.

For Wednesday and beyond, the Western US remains under the
influence of broad and deepening long wave trough. Series of
shortwaves shift across the region, helping to deepen the
trough. There is some disagreement in the ensemble clusters
regarding these features, and resulting changes in the larger
feature. Periods of showers will be possible, generally
increasing toward the weekend. Overall temperatures look
relatively stable through the week with daytime highs lower
elevations generally in the 60s, warming toward the 70s by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1012 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR conditions continue. Winds are beginning to drop off this
evening as a shortwave drops through the area. SHRA develops
along shortwave axis, but very dry air at surface will mean
little in the way of precipitation. Best chance for SHRA will be
at IDA and DIJ 06z-12Z, though there is some wiggle room with
some models a little more aggressive with precip spread down to
PIH and KBYI as well. There is also some indication that SHRA
will continue after sunrise for DIJ. Windier conditions in place
for Sunday afternoon, along with an increase in SHRA coverage
and a better chance at seeing TSRA. Have vicinity showers for
mainly KIDA and KDIJ for tomorrow afternoon for now. Have now
added vicinity thunderstorms for all sites except KSUN by late
afternoon/very early evening and the threat of thunderstorms
will only last a few hours into the early evening tomorrow
evening. That said, there is only a 15 to 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MacKay
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...TW