030
FXUS65 KPIH 171003
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
Issued by National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
403 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire conditions for parts of central and east Idaho
  Thursday afternoon.

- Warming trend into the weekend.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Upper level flow turns from northwesterly to southwesterly today
as ridge amplifies over the area. That means that we will see
temps warm once again. Many lower elevations will see highs
today in the lower to mid 90s. It also means a return to
monsoonal flow with high resolution models showing some isolated
showers and thunderstorms crossing over the Utah border after
21Z this afternoon. Expect breezy conditions this afternoon
across the Snake Plain and north, but probably remaining below
wind advisory and lake wind advisory criteria.

Friday will be continued warm as a weak cold front advances
towards our area. Temps might be just a touch cooler because of
additional cloud cover, but still likely looking at lower 90s
for the lower elevations. We will have better changes for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the southeast
highlands and along the Montana border as this moisture
interacts with the cold front late Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Weather looks mainly quiet over the weekend with temperatures
holding close to normal. Lower elevations will see highs around
90. As we head toward the middle of next week, most models are
showing a trough trying to edge into the area which may cool us
down a few more degrees and potentially may introduce another
shot at showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 949 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will become
light, less than 10 kts, for much of the late evening and
overnight but will increase Thursday afternoon closer to 15 kts
with higher gusts. No precipitation is expected but some
mid/high clouds may stream in to the area around KBYI and KPIH
late in the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 356 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Expect marginal red flag conditions today across the Snake Plain
into the central mountains this afternoon. Minimum humidity
values are expected to fall into the low to mid teens while wind
gusts will be in the 20 to 30 mph range across this area. Fuels
may not be quite ready in the central mountains where wind
thresholds are a little lower while the peak wind gusts may
stay just below the critical threshold of 30 mph in the Snake
Plain. Plan on adding headlines to the Fire Weather Forecast
product to highlight near critical conditions today but will
hold off on formal red flags given the uncertainty. On Friday,
monsoonal moisture will produce isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across the region. The best chances for storms
appears to be in zone 413, and storm coverage could be close
enough to warrant a red flag warning especially with ongoing
fires in that zone.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...13