122
FXUS65 KPIH 091711
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1111 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier weather returns today and beyond with hot conditions
  likely for the weekend. Many low elevations will reach 100
  degrees by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Cool front/dry line arrives today. Still debatable if enough
dry air works into the region before convection fires off. The
NAM, GFS and HREF keeps things pretty dry, but the HRRR
continues to fire off showers and thunderstorms around Arco and
propagates them east to near IF and Rexburg by 00z. Decided to
add a slight chance for storms in that area, but its likely that
if we see anything it will probably be just virga. With that
said, we could still see some descent wind gusts from the virga
showers if they develop.

Dry weather is likely into early next week. Hot conditions arrive
over the weekend. Heat risk values are strongly pinging some form of
heat products across much of our central and east Idaho and have
been consistently doing so. Temps in the upper 90s to around 100
looks very likely for many of our communities. These temperatures
will flirt with daily records at many sites. Given the consistency
that we`ve been seeing will roll with a heat watch for Saturday and
Sunday. Looks breezy as well over the weekend with wind gusts in the
20 to 30 mph range for many. This hot weather looks like it will
continue into Monday, perhaps backing off some on Tuesday. Could see
the heat products extending into early next week, but with less
confidence at this time. Potential monsoon flow from the south looks
to arrive for Wednesday and beyond bringing chances for showers and
thunderstorms, added cloud cover, and somewhat lower temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Widespread VFR with mainly clear skies through Friday with only
some few to sct mid level clouds. Winds generally under 10 knots
other than some afternoon 10 knots or so at PIH and IDA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across zone 413 this
afternoon. If storms develop, gusty outflow winds are likely.
Otherwise very dry weather arrives for the weekend. This will
allow hot weather to set in and breezy conditions as well.
Depending upon fuel conditions, could see critical fire weather
conditions over a large portion of the area.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening for IDZ051>068-070-075.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...13