Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
372 FXUS65 KPIH 191855 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1255 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Night. Early afternoon satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across ERN Idaho under the increasing influence of high pressure. This will lead to continued low impact weather with dry conditions and light winds. Following a series of cold fronts earlier this week, temperatures have responded accordingly with highs both today and Sunday in the 50s/60s which are near normal to slightly above normal levels for this time of year. Overnight lows tonight will be similar to last night in the 20s/30s before trending slightly warmer Sunday night into the 30s/40s. MacKay .LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday. The trend continues to be drier with the low passing to our north Monday and Tuesday. Any real chance of precipitation is generally west of a Stanley to Salmon line. Even with that, not much moisture is expected. We COULD also see a shower around Island Park, but that potential is even lower. Temperatures will be about 2-5 degrees lower across the north Monday and Tuesday, while about 2-5 degrees warmer farther south where we basically see no influence from that storm. It still looks mostly dry until the end of next week. Even then, we are back to where we`ve been with model trends over the past several weeks...except for the last storm. That trend is toward keeping things farther north and drier with the next storm/wave moving into the northwest U.S. That means while definitely NOT as warm as previous weeks, it will still be ABOVE AVERAGE temperature-wise with the upcoming pattern. Keyes && .AVIATION...18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday. Predominant VFR and dry conditions with light winds will continue to round out the weekend under the increasing influence of high pressure. Skies will remain mostly clear outside of some high cirrus clouds. Increasing clouds will build in later in the day Sunday into Monday as a weak, dry cold front builds in from the west. MacKay && .FIRE WEATHER... Another mostly dry stretch of weather is ahead over the next 7 days and likely beyond that. We will see one or more storms clip central and eastern Idaho through early next week. The next "real" chance of precipitation is with Monday`s system. While the trend is drier, we COULD see some light showers across Zone 475 down to around Stanley. A shower or two is still possible around Island Park, but the chance is trending MUCH LOWER there. We remain on the northern edge of high pressure centered well to our south. Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE throughout the period. The next threat of precipitation likely won`t come until Friday or beyond. Current trends are similar to the past several weeks with storms in the extended (minus the last storm) are drier and keeping the main impacts north of us. The latest forecast reflects some chance of showers, mainly across the central mountains and around Island Park. Keyes && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$