293
FXUS65 KPIH 280730
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1230 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional rain and snow showers continue.

- Breezy conditions today

- Cold unsettled conditions continue throughout the extended,
  with potential for light snow accumulations down to valley
  floors at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1157 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

We will see 2 separate lows drop southeast across the state. On
today and tonight, the other coming in for Sunday. We will
gradually see light showers increase this morning, although
quite a bit of this especially outside of the central mountains
may not amount to anything but some sprinkles or flurries. By
afternoon, the main focus for rain and snow shifts out of the
central mountains and into the Snake Plain, eastern and
southeast highlands. We will be watching as the cold front drops
into eastern Idaho for the potential for an enhanced band
(hybrid cold front/upslope band) from around Pocatello up
through Idaho Falls, Rexburg and into the Teton Valley. Right
now, we are cranking out additional precipitation amounts other
than a couple of hundredths, but there is a 15-35% chance of
more than 0.10" especially on the benches. The rest of the area
will generally see 0.10" or less, with some higher mountain
ranges pushing toward 0.25". Locally higher amounts are possible
across the eastern and southeast highlands. Snowfall-wise, that
only equates to a couple of inches...with some spots in the Big
Holes, Tetons and Bear River Range trying to eek out 3-4". We
could see limited travel impacts for Pine Creek Pass, going up
to Teton Pass, and Emigration Summit. Winds will pick up, with
gusts 25-40 mph being common across the area. Gusts over 40 mph
could occur across higher ranges, and where we get cold air
spilling out of Montana and the central mountains. We aren`t
currently thinking any impacts with wind or wind and snow will
be huge.

We get a break, before the next low drops across the state for
the end of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. There are still
some subtle differences in terms of where the low wants to track
and if it splits in the process, but current trends put the bulk
of the snow across the South Hills, Albion Mountains, and
southeast highlands. In those areas, we are currently forecast
0.10"-0.40" of moisture, with up to 0.10" along the 84/86
corridor including the benches. Most areas would see anywhere
from a dusting to a couple of inches. We could see 2-6" for
places like Pomerelle and the Bear River Range. We will need to
monitor the track of that low to see what we need to adjust.
Today begins a drastic drop in temperatures. We will still be
about 10 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE, but dropping to around AVERAGE
for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

A cooler air mass is in place for heading into Monday, with
daytime highs in the 30s and overnight lows in the teens. Once
again the deterministic NBM temps are outliers to the spreads,
so could see some changes in forecast temperatures moving into
the weekend. Following a break in the precipitation Monday, next
shortwave drops into the region Tuesday. Differences in the
ensemble clusters are starting to become more amplified this far
out, leading to differences in precipitation potential for East
Idaho. Temperatures still look cold enough to sustain snow or
brief mix in the afternoon with potential for light
accumulations even to valley floors. Looking ahead to the latter
half of the week, ensembles diverge significantly, with a
roughly 60/40 split between rebuilding a ridge across the west
or introducing a faster system to the PacNW. There is little
certainty by the time we reach the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

Generally low-impact VFR conditions will continue through late
Friday morning. Starting midday, winds will increase out of the WSW,
especially at KBYI and KPIH, along with some increased cloud cover
as our next shortwave trough crosses the region. A shift from SE to
WSW winds is still expected during the afternoon at KSUN (supported
especially in MOS guidance) as advertised in the TAF. CAMs remain
fairly "light, spotty, and messy" with regard to supporting
rain/snow shower activity with this shortwave (with a few of our
mountain ranges favored with the best chances), but we have started
to incorporate some trends into the new 06z TAFs just issued. KIDA
has been upgraded to VCSH starting at 23z/4pm Friday as passage of a
cold front with this system looks a bit wetter on the latest model
runs, although we keep conditions VFR for now. At KDIJ, we have
nudged previously-added VCSH to start later at 20z/1pm, but have
also now added a period of impacts along the cold front with 3SM -SN
and MVFR cigs starting at 23z/4pm, likely to last for several hours.
There is some potential for cigs/vsbys to go lower as well...we`ll
continue to adjust the forecast based on trends and model consensus
as confidence increases and we get closer. Behind the front
Friday evening, also wondering if north winds will take over at
the surface at KIDA and how strong they might be with strong
drainage out of the valleys of the eastern central Mountains to
the north/west and hints in model VWPs of strong north winds
aloft approaching LLWS criteria. Stay tuned as we watch this as
well.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...01