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FXUS65 KPIH 011205
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
605 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday with
  today likely the hottest day, highs will reach the upper 80s
  to upper 90s in the valleys.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return this afternoon as
  monsoonal moisture lifts north into southeast Idaho.
  Independence Day may have the most widespread coverage of
  showers and storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

The heat is on as the calendar shifts to July today as some of the
warmest temperatures we`ve seen this year are expected. Early
morning satellite imagery shows some mid/high level clouds streaking
into the region from Utah and Nevada. Unlike previous days, we are
expecting some clouds today and they COULD have a bit of an impact
on today`s high temps if we get a bit more cloud cover than
currently forecast. Nevertheless, still expecting widespread 90s
across the lower elevations today with mid to upper 90s very likely
across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. Hi-res CAMs are a bit more
aggressive developing some afternoon showers/storms across the area.
Given the drier atmosphere, we`d be hard pressed to see any precip
reach the ground but some virga/dry thunderstorms are certainly
possible with gusty winds and lightning being the main concern with
these, if they develop. Given the decent coverage shown in the CAMs,
went ahead and included at least some PoPs throughout the area but
the best focus should be across the higher terrain of the central
mountains and along the Montana Divide region. Wednesday will be a
touch cooler, but still hot, with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s across the lower elevations with more afternoon shower/storm
chances once again with slightly better PoP chances across eastern
Idaho.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Weather pattern looks to remain active to round out the work week
and including the 4th of July holiday as diurnal shower/storm
chances linger Thu and especially Friday. Friday, July 4th, looks to
be the most active weather day as a shortwave trough swings through
the region sparking fairly widespread shower/storm chances
throughout the region. Deeper moisture will be in place by this
point so precip will be of the wetter variety as opposed to the
drier storms earlier this week. Some of these storms could
potentially be strong so this will be something to monitor over the
days ahead. With more clouds and moisture present, daytime high
temps will return to the 70s and 80s during the Thursday - Saturday
time period, coolest day likely on Friday. Another weak shortwave
moves north of the area on Saturday potentially sparking some precip
across the far northern extent of the forecast area while a strong
ridge looks to build over the Four Corners region likely leading us
back in to a hotter, drier pattern to round out the weekend and into
the first part of next week. At this point, temperatures look to
return to the 90s in the valleys once again with potentially a very
hot week in store for the second week of July if current model
solutions pan out. Time will tell....

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Incoming moist and unstable air will mean occasional cirriform
CIGs, mostly at northern airdromes, and a risk of TSRA at KPIH,
KIDA, KDIJ, and KBYI. KSUN appears to avoid the TSRA, with NBM
hourly probabilities staying below 5 percent during the
afternoon. Only KDIJ approaches 10 percent, so have limited the
TSRA to PROB30 groups, for a few hours this afternoon. Winds
continue light, and with as dry as the TS will be today, no
impact to VSBY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Hottest and driest day of the next week is today, prior to a push of
moist and unstable air from the south. Enough mid- and high level
moisture will reach the forecast area today that northern areas are
under a threat of showers and thunderstorms by the NBM guidance,
while SPC cast a broader brush that includes the entire forecast
area. For Wed, an area of marginal severe thunderstorms rears its
head in the central Idaho mountains, including the northwest
portions of the Salmon-Challis and northern Sawtooth NFs. Rainfall
should stay below wetting thresholds today, perhaps a mixture on Wed
and then Wed night possibly more wet in the southern tier of
highlands in the vicinity of UT. This threat of thunderstorms
continues through Independence Day, and now decreases in the south
for Sat and Sun.

With the surge of this unstable and subtropical air, the cloud cover
and the increase in moisture content will keep humidity readings
above critical values by Wed. This should continue through at least
Sat, then Sun may see the end of precipitation and a drying out that
will spike temperatures back up, though not quite as warm as
today.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...Messick