467
FXUS65 KPIH 150521
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1021 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers across the region through tonight. High snow
  levels limit accumulations to 1-3" primarily at or above pass
  level.

- Brief break is expected Saturday, then more active pattern
  returns with more widespread precipitation Sunday into Monday.

- Unsettled conditions are possible through midweek, with much
  cooler temperatures arriving for midweek and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Satellite imagery shows northern stream shortwave shifting east
across the region this afternoon, with deep southern stream
closed low off California coast. Light showers continue to
gradually shift east to eastern highlands by evening.
Accumulating snow remains above 7000-8000 ft tonight, and
amounts remain under 2". Shortwave axis shifts east tonight,
bringing a temporary end to the precipitation, while transitory
upper ridge builds into East Idaho. Saturday still looks dry
between departing northern stream shortwave and approaching
southern stream low. Temperatures Saturday are within a few
degrees from today`s highs. By overnight, southern low begins to
shift inland and northeast into the Great Basin, progged to
rapidly eject northeast into and across East Idaho during the
day Sunday. Warm frontal boundary shifts north into East Idaho
after midnight Saturday night, bringing light showers to the
region. Southerly flow re-strengthens again overnight behind the
warm front, keeping temperatures warm and snow levels elevated.
Some areas could see a rain/snow mix as low as 7000 ft, but any
potential new accumulations will be minimal and above pass
levels across the central mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Great Basin low shifts northeast through East Idaho during the
day Sunday ahead of rapidly approaching Pacific trough. Showers
increase across the region during the day. Accumulating snow
once again remains above 8000 ft, though could see a mix of rain
and snow as low as 6500-7000 ft. We do start to see a little
more impact during this time with up to 2" of snow at pass
level, and 3-5" above 8500 ft for the central mountains and the
Bear River Range. Temperatures decrease a little bit, mostly
due to the cloud cover and expected precipitation. Cold front
passes through early Monday, bringing cooler temperatures and a
decrease in shower activity.

Beyond Monday, the models have shifted the long range pattern
toward a series of repeat split trough systems moving through
the western states, with plenty of differences seen between the
deterministic models and ensemble clusters. The NBM has trended
toward maintaining weak showers mainly higher elevation areas
beginning Tuesday and continuing through the remainder of the
extended period following the cold front Monday. Differences in
depth and amplification of the northern stream systems as they
pass through have led to quite a bit of spread in both
temperature and QPF for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Upper ridge builds in Saturday with VFR conditions widespread
and only few to scattered mid and high level clouds through
Saturday afternoon. Not expecting significant winds Saturday
under upper level ridge.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...GK