213
FXUS65 KPIH 032017
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
217 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms every day through Saturday with July
  4th the most widespread coverage and precipitation as an
  upper level wave pushes east.

- Cooler temperatures continuing Friday and Saturday with highs
  only in the 70s and 80s.

- Overall dry conditions are expected to return by Sunday and
  continue through next week with an overall warming trend as
  well. Temperatures will return to the 90s and even approaching
  100 for lower elevations by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
evening. The upper level short wave will move through Idaho
Friday and expect more widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity on the 4th during the day and evening. Will have some
impacts for daytime outdoor activities. Will have a 50 percent
chance of greater than 0.10 inches of precipitation over much of
the central mountains and southeast mountains. lows tonight
mainly in the 50s and 60s with some 40s mountain valleys. Highs
on the 4th in the 70s and 80s with some upper 50s to 60s in the
mountains. It will be cooler Friday night with lows mainly in
the 40s and 50s with some 30s in mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Any convective activity Saturday will be limited to the Upper
Snake Highlands toward the Montana border and the eastern
mountains. Dry conditions expected elsewhere as the moist
pattern begins to dissipate west to east. Highs again only in
the 70s and 80s. The remainder of the long term period Sunday
through Thursday will be hot and dry. Highs by Monday will be
back into the 90s low elevations and 80s mountains with some low
elevations near 100 degrees by Tuesday. Minimal impacts in the
long term other than continued drying with typical hot July
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Cloud shelf with light embedded showers shifting off to the east per
satellite and radar imagery late this morning. Clearing to the west
will allow for additional instability to develop. High-res models
still indicate best potential for thunderstorms extend across the
central mountains north of SUN, and along a line from near BYI to
DIJ. Maintained VCTS for this afternoon for all sites, but added
PROB30 for PIH and DIJ where higher confidence exists. Conditions
clear after sunset this evening, but next band shifts into East
Idaho from the southwest late tonight/early Fri AM. Believe at this
time that conditions would support SHRA instead of TSRA, at least
early.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Early region of showers has shifted into Wyoming, allowing for
clearing skies and the development of new showers and thunderstorms.
Early afternoon radar shows current development over the central
mountains, with new development expected across the Southern
Sawtooths and Caribou NF this afternoon. Gusts 25-45 mph will be
possible. Although the thunderstorm activity is expected to decrease
after sunset, the showers may linger overnight. A second broad area
of showers will develop late tonight into early Friday morning,
shifting northeast across the region. Wetting rains will be possible
with this feature, mainly over higher elevation zones. Behind the
main band, afternoon heating will allow a few thunderstorms to
develop. Overall chances for wetting rains during the day Friday
exceed 40% for all but the Middle Snake region. Most of the Northern
Sawtooth, Salmon-Challis, and Targhee NFs have a 60% or higher
chance of wetting rains. Localized rainfall amounts could approach
or exceed one-quarter inch especially with heavier
shower/thunderstorm occurrence. Cooler temperatures and higher
daytime humidities remain forecast, and the combination of the above
factors will preclude any fire-related headline for the day.

Once again, thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish around
sunset, though a few showers could linger just beyond midnight. A
few showers remain possible for Saturday afternoon/evening,
otherwise high pressure rebounds across the Intermountain West.
Expect a drying and warming trend to last through mid-week next
week.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ413-427.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...GK
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...DMH