894
FXUS65 KPIH 291730
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1130 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue throughout the week,
  peaking Monday through Wednesday, with highs reaching the
  upper 80s to upper 90s in the valleys.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return midweek as
  monsoonal moisture lifts north into southeast Idaho.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Early morning satellite imagery is void of any appreciable cloud
cover across eastern Idaho as an area of high pressure starts
to establish itself over the region. As such, expecting mostly
clear skies and light winds regionwide today with precipitation
chances non-existent. Daytime highs are expected in the 80s
throughout the lower elevations with some mid to upper 80s
likely across the lower Snake Plain and into the Magic Valley.
As the ridge continues to amplify on Monday, temps will continue
on their upward trend, accordingly, with 90s becoming more
prevalent throughout the SNake Plain and Magic Valley on Monday
while higher elevation zones generally top out in the low to mid
80s. Most of our higher populated cities in the Snake Plain
will top out somewhere in the 90- 95 range on Monday. Hi-res
CAMs show some very low potential for maybe a dry
shower/thunderstorm to sneak in across the far southern part of
the forecast area, namely near the South Hills and along the
UT/NV border area but chances of this still appear too low to
even mention in the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Tuesday will be a HOT day across the region with mid and upper 90s
now looking increasingly likely throughout the Snake Plain and into
the Magic Valley with the warmest temperatures likely from areas
around Pocatello south and west into the Magic Valley. Not out of
the question that some locations within the zone top the 100 degree
mark on Tuesday and some model ensemble members show this as a
possibility around KPIH. Right now the current forecast stays below
the century mark but either way, it`s going to be unusually hot
across the area. Will continue to monitor trends over subsequent
forecasts for any necessary heat headline criteria as it remains
possible.  By Wednesday, models show an upper low moving in to
central California which turns the upper flow more southerly across
our area allowing for a bit more moisture to sneak in, increasing
cloud cover, lower temps a touch and bringing PoPs back in to the
forecast. Best precip chances will probably be focused across the
higher terrain. This more unsettled type of pattern looks to
continue to round out the work week and into the Independence Day
Holiday weekend as models show the potential for a weak shortwave
trough to swing into the Pacific NW later this week (Thu/Fri)
although still seeing some placement and timing difference with this
feature. Regardless, expect the above normal temperatures to stick
around for the foreseeable future as we move into the first week of
July and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

VFR conditions forecast through tonight. FEW070-100 mainly over
higher elevations, otherwise SKC. Winds to remain around or below
10KTS becoming light and variable/terrain driven overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Warming and drying will be the trend through Monday as high pressure
strengthens over the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Wind under
high pressure is typically light slope-valley, and expecting just
that for the next two days. The drying will get widespread afternoon
humidity in lower elevations to go below critical thresholds.
Instability in the atmosphere will also increase, especially in the
area near the Utah border on Mon.

The more unstable conditions will continue to grow through Wednesday
as unstable and moist air is expected to move in from the Desert
Southwest monsoon. This will start triggering afternoon and evening
thunderstorms and gustier afternoon wind starting Tue. Thunderstorms
will be limited Tue to the Salmon-Challis and northern Sawtooth NFs,
but spread into the Targhee portion of the Caribou-Targhee NF on
Wed. A slight temperature decrease starts Wed with the greater cloud
cover, which should help afternoon humidity not be quite as low.

Humidity recovery should also worsen at night through at least Tue
night, getting poor especially in the Utah border region, but even
getting poor in the northern Sawtooth.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...Messick