181
FXUS65 KPIH 221145
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
545 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flood Risk & Active Flood Watches: Deep monsoonal
  moisture carrying Precipitable Water (PWAT) values near the
  99th percentile has prompted a Flood Watch for the Eastern and
  Southeastern Highlands, as well as the Wapiti Burn Scar in the
  Central Mountains. Slow-moving thunderstorms will be capable
  of torrential rainfall, localized flash flooding, and debris
  flows on recent burn scars. Secondary storm hazards include
  gusty outflow winds and small hail.

- Noticeably Cooler Today: Extensive cloud cover will keep
  daytime highs limited to the 80s in lower elevations and mid-
  to-upper 70s in the mountains.

- Late-Week Pattern Shift & Returning Heat: A drying and
  warming trend begins Thursday. High temperatures will climb
  back into the mid-90s across lower valleys this weekend and
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Early morning radar shows showers filtering into the South Hills
region from the south. Southwest flow will continue to stream deep
monsoonal moisture into Southeast Idaho today, which will support
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Activity will taper off early
this morning before a shortwave feature enhances another round of
organized showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Storms will be wet today, capable of producing heavy rain and
localized flooding. The FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for the east
and southeast highlands, where confidence in flash flooding impacts
is highest, as well as for the Wapiti burn scar due to the risk of
debris flows. Storms will be capable of producing 35 to 45 mph
outflow winds, as well. Today`s high temperatures will be noticeably
cooler, running around normal to slightly below normal with
widespread 80s across the low elevations. With the exception of some
lingering chances for isolated showers and storms late week,
conditions will trend dry with above normal temperatures returning
for the end of the week and weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Another organized round of showers and thunderstorms will arrive
this afternoon through evening, with PROB30s at all sites for
-TSRA, although heavy downpours and resultant reductions in VIS
 remains possible. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing
 outflow winds 35 to 45 mph.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Southwest flow will continue to stream deep monsoonal moisture into
Southeast Idaho today, which will support scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Activity will taper off early this morning before a
shortwave feature enhances another round of activity this afternoon
and evening. Storms will be very wet today and capable of producing
heavy rain and localized flooding with precipitable water values
ranging up to 1.5" across Southeast Idaho. While thunderstorm
coverage will reach scattered across most of our forecast area
today, the extremely moist nature of the storms has prompted the
decision to not issue a Red Flag Warning for any of our Fire
Weather Zones. Probability of wetting rain is highest across
Fire Weather Zones 475 and 476, 411, as well as the extreme
eastern extents of Zones 410 and 413. The higher confidence in
heavy rainfall in these areas has resulted in the issuance of a
FLOOD WATCH for the east and southeast highlands, as well as for
the Wapiti burn scar due to the risk of debris flows. Storms
will be capable of producing 35 to 45 mph outflow winds, as
well. Today`s high temperatures will be noticeably cooler,
running around normal to slightly below normal with widespread
80s across the low elevations. With the exception of some
lingering chances for isolated showers and storms late week,
conditions will trend dry with above normal temperatures
returning for the end of the week and weekend.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 2 PM MDT this afternoon through this evening
for IDZ058>066.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cropp
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...Cropp