370
FXUS65 KPIH 031943
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
143 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold with continued mountain snow showers today with isolated
  showers in valleys. Lingering showers in eastern highlands
  Friday.

- Dry weekend as temperatures warm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Deep trough over the Intermountain West in place but slowly moving
east per satellite imagery. Shortwave dropping through Idaho
Panhandle/Western Montana this afternoon combining with cold pool
over East Idaho to help produce showers across the region. Valley
temperatures are warm enough to be a mix of rain/snow, with snow
levels over mid and upper elevations. NBM produced just enough
Thunder to keep isolated mention across portions of the Central
Mountains, closest to the shortwave axis. Would not be surprised to
see a lightning strike anywhere else, but not enough confidence to
add it. HRRR produces some gusts out of the showers this afternoon,
to the tune of about 25-30mph, which would not be out of the realm
of possibility for early spring. Most of the activity should
decrease with loss of daytime heating, but shortwave trough takes
it`s time working through the region overnight, so will likely still
see isolated showers across the northeast corner. Northerly gradient
pushes down the Snake Plain overnight, and the recent HRRR runs are
trying to develop a weak pseudo-convergent band down through the
Lower Snake Plain and Eastern Magic Valley through the late night,
possible into the early morning hours. The NAM holds on to a thin
band of moisture that matches the timing, but does not quite get as
aggressive as the HRRR. If this band would develop, it could be able
to produce a quick skiff of snow overnight with temperatures falling
below freezing.

Northerly surface gradient continues through Friday, and will be
breezy especially across the northern portions of the Snake Plain.
Shower development will be possible across the Bear Lake region, in
vicinity of the departing low. Otherwise much drier conditions will
set in across the region, with temperatures creeping slightly
upwards towards more seasonable readings for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Dry and warmer conditions are expected over the weekend.
Temperatures by Sunday will be back into the 60s at lower
elevations. The next storm will impact us Monday and Tuesday for
the most part, with some lingering showers on Wednesday. With
temperatures remaining on the warm side, any snowfall will be
limited to really high elevations. The current forecasts really
don`t have a ton moisture falling either. The pattern favors the
Sawtooths (up 0.50") and Tetons (up to 0.30"). This is over
48-60 hour period. It will also be breezy but nothing too strong
at the moment. High pressure returns for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Showers have become more widespread through the day. Although
we do expect VFR weather...we may end up seeing MVFR/IFR more
often especially as a shower passes over an airport. We will
like see a mix of shower type...rain, snow and/or graupel.
Coverage diminishes this evening through Friday, but we will
likely see a few showers still around. We have included -SHRA or
VCSH through sometime this evening and leave it out for the
rest of the TAF period for now. Don`t surprised to see
amendments to any given TAF as we see things progressing.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...Keyes