435
FXUS65 KPIH 181958
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
158 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms dwindle Sunday and Monday before
  monsoon moisture returns Tuesday

- Gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and small hail possible
  with some stronger thunderstorms

- Very hot conditions Sunday and Monday. Some triple digit high
  temperatures are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Will have another round of showers and thunderstorms this
evening mainly in the southern mountains and central mountains.
AT least an isolated threat elsewhere. Upper ridge axis slides
west and should limit monsoonal flow a bit Sunday and Monday.
Highs mid to upper 90s lower elevations both days with some
sites reaching 100. Monsoonal flow opens up again Tuesday with
extensive moisture moving back into place with scattered showers
and thunderstorms widespread across all of southeast and central
Idaho. Temperatures will be slightly cooler mid week and will be
drier Thursday into Saturday but will still have a chance of
convective activity daily with temperatures near or slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop once again this
afternoon and linger into the evening as diurnal heating acts on
lingering monsoon moisture plume over the area. Carrying PROB30
groups at all terminals from early/mid afternoon through early
evening to reflect this threat. Similar to yesterday, a direct
thunderstorm hit on a terminal could bring brief MVFR or lower
vsbys in locally heavy rain, small hail, and wind gusts of 30-45
kts. Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate after sunset,
with continued VFR conditions overnight into Sunday with just
some lingering mid/high clouds. Winds will remain light (less
than 10 kts) aside from any thunderstorm or outflow impacts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Showers and thunderstorms this evening across mainly 476, 475,
425, 413, 411 and parts of 410. Mainly isolated coverage with
some storms gusting over 35 mph. Will dissipate after sunset
with less coverage on Sunday mainly again in 413 and parts of
425 and 411. Monday will be mainly dry but monsoonal moisture
returns with showers and thunderstorms returning Monday evening
and especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect widespread
scattered coverage both Tuesday and Wednesday. Will have
convective activity late next week as well but not as widespread
as Tuesday and Wednesday which are the best chances to receive
some wetting rains. Hot conditions will remain through the
forecast period with the hottest days Sunday and Monday. Many
low elevations will be near 100 degrees.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GK
AVIATION...KB
FIRE WEATHER...GK