192
FXUS65 KPIH 030501
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1001 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today & Tonight: Light rain and snow showers continue through
  tonight but will remain generally unimpactful.

- Mid-Week Warmth: Valley temperatures climb into the mid to upper
  50s by Wednesday before a cooling trend arrives Thursday.

- Mountain Snow: A weather system Wednesday and Thursday will
  bring several inches of snow to the central mountains and
  eastern highlands, primarily above 6,0006,500 feet.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Updated forecast to include some patchy dense fog in the Snake
Plain and Teton Basin overnight. The NBM, HRRR and HREF are
pointing to dense fog developing tonight. The most likely area
is out across the Arco Desert. But models disagree if it will
impacts the main highways corridor around Pocatello to Idaho
Falls. This depends largely on how much of the low clouds
dissipates in this area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows widespread cloud cover
across Eastern Idaho as a weak weather disturbance moves quickly
through the region. Despite the clouds and ongoing light
precipitation, temperatures remain near seasonal averages, with
valley highs in the 40s. High-resolution weather models indicate
that rain and snow showers will taper off tonight as the
disturbance moves east into Wyoming. Expect partial clearing
from west to east overnight, though some low-level clouds may
linger in the Snake Plain and Magic Valley through early Tuesday
morning. Tuesday looks relatively quiet as a brief period of
high pressure builds over the area.

A "spring-like" pattern takes hold mid-week as a Pacific system
begins digging into the region. Wednesday will be quite mild,
with valley temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s. While
moisture is somewhat limited, precipitation will increase by
Wednesday afternoon. Snow is expected for the higher terrain of
the central mountains and eastern highlands, generally staying
above 6,000 feet. This system shifts overhead on Thursday,
ushering in cooler air and dropping valley highs back into the
40s for the remainder of the week. Showery precipitation will
linger into Friday, primarily confined to the mountains. There
is some uncertainty in the models regarding whether this system
cuts off from the main atmospheric flow, which could impact how
long showers stick around late in the week.

Conditions look to trend quieter by the weekend as pressure
aloft increases. This will allow temperatures to return to the
50s for valley locations, with any remaining rain or snow
showers limited to the high country. Looking toward early next
week, weather models are showing increasing agreement that a
broader Pacific system will approach the Intermountain West by
Monday. While specific details regarding timing and totals are
still being finalized, precipitation chances are expected to
rise once again. Overall, expect the active spring pattern to
persist with no significant Arctic air intrusions on the
horizon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1000 PM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

Main concern overnight is IFR clouds and dense fog development.
IDA and DIJ seems the best candidates where the higher clouds
are eroding away currently. NBM shows winds remaining fairly
light in those locations as well which would help in fog
development. At PIH, the winds are expected to stay up a little
more, perhaps weakening around 12z. So PIH seems a better
candidate for low IFR stratus and not so much the fog. BYI will
likely winds up enough through the night that the IFR conditions
may not be met, or at least low chances.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION...McKaughan
AVIATION...13