527
FXUS65 KPIH 022320
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
520 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms every day through Saturday with July
  4th likely the most widespread coverage as an upper level wave
  pushes east.

- Cooler temperatures beginning Thursday with highs only in the
  70s and 80s Thursday through Saturday.

- Overall dry conditions are expected to return by Sunday and
  continue into next week with an overall warming trend as well.
  Temperatures will return to the 90s for lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Southerly flow aloft continues through the short term period
with extensive moisture working into the region. Will have
isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
and again Thursday afternoon and evening. Expect more widespread
coverage Thursday afternoon with scattered coverage more
widespread especially in higher elevations. Lows tonight in the
50s and 60s with highs Thursday into the 70s mountains and 80s
to near 90 valleys. Expecting strong wind gusts only near any
thunderstorm outflow activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Friday is expected to have the most widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity in the forecast period. Over 0.10 inches
is likely in the central mountain and Sun Valley region and
northeast mountains. Expect lesser amounts in the Snake Plain
and southern mountains. It will be the coolest day as well with
highs only in the 70s and 80s with some 60s mountains.
Convective activity will be limited to the northeast mountains
Saturday with continued cool weather with highs in the 70s and
80s continuing. Dry and hot conditions expected Sunday through
Wednesday with another upper level ridge building over Idaho.
Highs Monday through Wednesday in the 80s mountains and 90s
valleys possible approaching 100 in some locations by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening,
though most are far enough east now to be pushing into western WY.
There are a few more showers lifting northward up out of far
southwestern UT and northwestern NV into southern ID, so will keep
an eye on things, but have removed VCTS from all sites except for
DIJ where it will only continue for about another hour or so. VCSH
and SHRA chances will increase after midnight tonight with more
thunderstorms in the forecast for Thursday afternoon. Went with VCTS
in the TAFs for Thursday afternoon for now due to some discrepancies
between hi-res models, but hoping there will be a bit more consensus
with data this evening/tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Trend still in place for increased thunderstorm coverage moving
through the rest of the week. Cloud cover early today may have
limited the amount of instability for thunderstorms today, but in
any case, coverage today leans more toward isolated and widely
scattered. Gusty winds 35-50 mph will be possible. Thunderstorm
coverage increases into Thursday, and then again into Friday for the
4th. There is some potential for overnight storms Thursday night,
but confidence is low. The increase in precipitation comes with a
decrease in temperatures and increase in daytime humidity. By
Friday, most thunderstorms should be able to produce a wetting rain.
The bulk of the moisture shifts east for the weekend, allowing for a
warming trend to return to East Idaho. Humidities should return
toward more seasonable levels, but isolated thunderstorms may
continue across higher terrain zones through Sunday. High pressure
builds back into the Intermountain West for the early part of next
week, for continued drying and warming trend.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for IDZ413.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...GK
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...DMH