029
FXUS65 KPIH 300058
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
658 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  continue through the weekend, primarily each afternoon and
  evening. Stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty
  winds, small hail, and heavy rain.

- Conditions will remain very dry outside of any showers or
  storms, supporting elevated fire weather conditions due to a
  combination of low relative humidity and breezy winds.

- Temperatures will remain near/above normal through Wednesday,
  ahead of a gradual cooling trend back starting Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Satellite imagery shows shortwave complex shifting northeast across
East Idaho today. Deeper cloud cover across the southeast corner
appears to have mitigated instability enough to preclude all but a
few showers to form this afternoon. Further west, line of convective
development has begun from near the Idaho/Oregon/Nevada triple
point northeast across the central mountains to the Yellowstone
area. Expect continued development in this environment, with
storms having the potential to produce gusts over 50 mph, small
hail, and brief heavy rainfall. Most of the instability appears
to wring out of the airmass by early evening, but kept isolated
thunder going until around sunset, given pattern over recent
days. Can`t completely rule out a thunderstorm across the south
hills or Eastern Magic Valley this afternoon, but confidence is
much lower there for now. Models are consistent in developing a
moderate northerly flow across much of the region overnight.
Gusts this morning associated with a similar down-valley flow
through the Snake Plain were pushing well into the 20s, so
forecast winds may be underdone slightly given the strong signal
especially in the high-res models for overnight. Another round
of mainly isolated thunder is in place for Wednesday, but that
round may catch more of the southern and eastern highlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Longer term models and ensembles maintain presence of upper low
just off the BC Canada coast or slightly inland, leaving East
Idaho under the influence of shortwave features ejecting out of
the low. Ensemble means slowly shift trough axis inland Sunday
through Tuesday, with slight differences in timing and depth of
the feature. Forecast retains isolated to scattered
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening mainly across higher
elevations. Temperatures cool into the lower to mid 80s for much
of the region Sunday through the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 651 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

TSRA still a risk at KDIJ and KSUN, with strong outflow wind
possible at KBYI. Gusts to 40 mph and HRRR indicating gusts in
excess of 50KT. Conditions should calm down by 30/04Z, with
both TSRA and wind ending before or by then. Cirriform clouds
will continue to linger, then a risk of TSRA for KSUN and KDIJ
on Wed afternoon at a minimum. Other airdromes will need to be
monitored, but it currently looks like the TSRA will stick to
mountain/highland regions in eastern Idaho.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

A RED FLAG WARNING is in effect until 9 PM MDT for Fire Weather Zone
422 for scattered thunderstorms and gusty outflow winds. There will
also be scattered thunderstorms in zones 475 and 476, but fuels
there are still "approaching critical" so have decided not to
include those two zones in the warning at the request of our fire
partners. Thunderstorms today will be capable of producing gusty
outflow winds of 50-55 mph, small hail, and brief, heavy downpours.
Outside of these zones, we will see some isolated storm activity
across much of Eastern Idaho, though the Snake River Plain is mostly
likely to stay dry today. It is still hot and dry throughout most of
Eastern Idaho with min RHs in the single digits and low teens in the
South Hills, Eastern Highlands, and Snake River Plain with highs
ranging from mid 80s to mid 90s. While we can expect more of the
same for Wednesday, will hold off on any Red Flag Warnings for now
and see how today plays out. Isolated to scattered storms increase a
bit in coverage as the week goes on, so will evaluate each day. Min
RHs will very gradually increase throughout the week as our
afternoon highs very gradually decrease as more moisture heads our
way. Wind gusts remain in the 15-25 mph range for most with some
isolated spots very near or reaching 30 mph.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ422.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...AMM