035
FXUS65 KPIH 210913
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
213 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night.
Patchy dense fog and low stratus are the main focus early this
morning. The bulk of this is quite visible on satellite out across
the Arco Desert/Mud Lake area, INL area, back across the Wood River
Valley, through parts of the Eastern Highlands and in the Snake
River Plain. In some of these spots, visibility is impacted and
dropped down to below a mile and even down to closer to a quarter or
a tenth of a mile. This patchy dense freezing fog and re-freeze
overnight will lead to some slick spots early Friday morning.
Expecting nearly a repeat of this low stratus/patchy dense fog
tonight into Saturday morning, too, with increasing cloud cover and
a few flurries. For this afternoon, dropped highs just a couple of
degrees from what the NBM had as this low stratus likely hinders a
bigger warm up, especially through the Snake River Plain and around
the Mud Lake area. Latest HREF data shows a 10 percent chance for
highs to surpass 35 degrees F from American Falls and northward. On
the flip side, it`s about a 50 to 70 percent chance of exceeding 35
degrees F around Oakley and Burley. Our warming trend will continue
into the weekend with highs on Saturday 2-5 degrees warmer for
everyone. That means about a 10 to 20 percent chance for highs to
reach 40 degrees around American Falls and Pocatello and a 50 to 70
percent chance of the same around Burley and Oakley. With this warm
up, we`ll continue to watch for any impacts from melting snow. A
bit more on that below...
AMM

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday.
We are looking at a "1-2 Punch" with round 1 Sunday and Monday,
and round 2 quickly following on Tuesday. This pattern still looks
fairly warm with snow confined to upper slope elevations, with
potential at least a rain/snow mix between 6000-7500ft on the warm
side of this storm. This combined with some areas NOT dropping
below freezing at night, means we will be paying attention to any
concerns for sheet flooding, and/or increasing runoff/snowmelt. At
the moment, we are NOT expecting any type of major event taking
place...but we wouldn`t be shocked to see some localized issues.
The areas getting most of the moisture will be in the Sawtooths
and surrounding ranges, as well as around Island Park, Big Holes,
and Tetons. We will look at moisture (rain/melted snow numbers at
this will likely be a bigger issue) and probabilities since we are
still a ways out and expecting some changes until then. There is
a 40-70% chance of exceeding 0.50" for the Big Holes and Island
Park. There is also a 10-15% chance of more than 1" there and
25-45% chance for the Tetons. For the Sawtooths/surrounding
ranges, there is a 20-40% of more than 1.5" and 10-15% chance of
more than 2.0". The period of warmer temperatures continues
through at least the end of next week, but with minimal to no
precipitation forecast. Keyes


&&

.AVIATION...12Z Friday through 12z Saturday.
Look for morning fog and/or stratus impacting most TAF sites.
We`ve been mostly MVFR/IFR with these conditions. Even SUN has had
low clouds in and out of the area overnight. We should eventually
go VFR for ALL sites later on today. We will need to watch a
potential repeat performance Friday night at PIH, IDA and DIJ.
Keyes


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$