969
FXUS65 KPIH 121858
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1258 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake Wind Advisory continues for American Falls Reservoir
  through the evening due to breezy winds.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions this
  afternoon and slight improvement for Saturday.

- Generally dry conditions are expected for the weekend and
  much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

An upper level trough dropping out of Alberta brings a cold front
through Idaho late today into Saturday. This is bringing increasing
winds, near critical to critical fire weather conditions, and a
brief cool down for Saturday. Wind gusts through the afternoon and
evening will range from 25 to 35 mph throughout much of the eastern
Magic Valley and Snake River Plain with some gusts up to 40 mph out
across the INL and Mud Lake/Arco Desert areas. It is the gusty winds
and very low min RHs of 10 to 15 percent in the eastern Magic Valley
that are creating the critical fire weather conditions this
afternoon. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY also continues until 9 pm this
evening due to these gusty winds. We will need another LAKE WIND
ADVISORY on Saturday (and looking likely for Sunday, too) as
northeast winds arrive behind the cold front.

On Saturday, afternoon highs will be about 5 degrees cooler than
today, so it`s not a particularly strong cold front, and
temperatures begin to warm again on Sunday. Highs return to the mid
70s to mid 80s for Sunday afternoon. There will be showers and
storms farther north in Montana with a less than 10 percent chance
of any isolated shower or storm around the Island Park to Driggs
area. Wind gusts on Saturday will be lighter, around 20 to 25 mph,
but increase overnight into Sunday morning with gusts of 30 to 35
mph. Min RHs increase slightly on Saturday, but will still be in the
15 to 20 percent range throughout much of our CWA, though closer to
25 to 30 percent in the Eastern Highlands.

Early next week temperatures warm into the 80s and close to 90 by
Tuesday afternoon. These temperatures will be driven up by strong
west southwest winds with widespread gusts of 35 to 45 mph.
Wednesday also looks to be quite the windy day. Overall, next week
looks like a hot, dry, and windy one.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions continue with SKC-FEW250 skies over the region.
Gusty southwest flow continues to develop through the afternoon,
and may remain breezy few several hours after sunset. Winds at
SUN turn to a westerly crosswind for the afternoon and evening,
turning northwest around sunset. During the overnight, northerly
flow shifts into East Idaho, becoming a down-valley flow for all
terminals. After sunrise, expect the down-valley flow to
increase, but SUN is still expected to become up-valley late
morning for the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 AM MDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Dry cold front moving through during the day will bring gusty
winds and continued low humidity. If the fuel conditions were
more critical, the eastern Magic Valley, Zone 425, would be
under critical fire weather conditions. The southern Sawtooth
NF, Zone 427 has some limited areas for two hours reaching
critical fire weather conditions, so the borderline conditions
that are slightly below thresholds for time and coverage means
no Red Flag Warning for today/tonight.

Humidity will continue low, with lower elevations hovering
around the 15 percent critical threshold in the southwest
quadrant and valleys in the Salmon-Challis NF. With limited risk
of showers and even cloudiness, minimum humidity gets into
single digit range by Wed and Thu. With a trough moving through
Tue Night/Wed, Red Flag conditions appear to be possible at that
time.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMM
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...Messick