673
FXUS65 KPIH 051728
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1128 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day of seasonal temperatures before a warming trend
  begins tomorrow and continues through the weekend with a
  return to the 90s for some.

- Generally dry aside from maybe an isolated shower/storm across
  the central mountains this afternoon/evening. The region will
  then remain dry until at least Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 108 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

The region remains under the influence of an upper level trough
for one final day before the pattern changes to strong upper
level ridging which will allow temps to climb as we head towards
the weekend. Before we get there though, we`ll have one more
day of seasonal to slightly below normal temperatures. We should
see a few more clouds today and maybe even some precipitation
into the central mountains later this afternoon. Hi-res CAMs are
picking up on this potential so some isolated showers, maybe a
thunderstorm, could be realized in this area while the rest of
the region is expected to remain dry. Trough will give way to
upper level ridging during the overnight and into the day
Friday. Overnight lows will remain cool into Friday AM but the
warming trend will become noticeable during the day on Friday
as mid to upper 70s become commonplace in the lower elevations
with maybe a few low 80s in the lower Snake and Magic Valley
possible under ample sunshine and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 108 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

H5 heights continue to increase significantly as an upper ridge
builds over the area in earnest over the weekend and into the
first part of next week. Expect a 4-6 degree increase on
overnight lows/high temperatures from Saturday into Sunday and
Monday. These means low to mid 80s for valley locations
Saturday, mid to upper 80s on Sunday with upper 80s to lower 90s
by the time we get to Monday. With high pressure in full
control, precipitation chances are basically zero with very few
clouds expected either during this period.

Models try to break the ridge down a bit on Tuesday but it
doesn`t appear to be happening as quickly as previous forecasts
showed so temperatures remain well above normal with upper 80s
and lower 90s appearing likely on Tuesday. Additionally, we will
start to see a bit of moisture sneaking into the area allowing
for a return of more widespread cloud cover and isolated to
scattered PoPs during the afternoon and evening hours.
Temperatures will remain on the warm side of normal but more
into the lower to mid 80s by the latter part of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Light and variable winds
this morning should remain as such throughout much of the day. KSUN
will see their usual upvalley/downvalley flow regime but the rest of
the area will generally be light and variable. Expecting a bit more
clouds today but these will be mid/high clouds keeping CIGs quite
high. Models do show a few showers potentially developing across the
central mountains which could impact KSUN but chances look too low
for any VCSH mention at this time. Same can be said for KIDA. We
did keep the mention of VCSH at DIJ for continuity, but chances
there aren`t too great. High pressure settles over the area
during the overnight and into the day Friday allowing for a
prolonged period of VFR to be expected Friday and throughout the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 108 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

A mostly dry pattern remains in the forecast for much of the
upcoming week. Could see some isolated showers/storms today
into the Central Mountains but high pressure will settle over
the area Friday and continue in place through the weekend and
into early next week keeping temperatures warm and precip
chances basically non-existent. Things cool down slightly for
the middle part of next week as the ridge breaks down bringing
some clouds and precipitation back in to the forecast.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...McKaughan/Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...McKaughan