209
FXUS65 KPIH 201125
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
525 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a Few Thunderstorms Through Tomorrow

- Stronger Winds Expected Especially For Monday

- Unsettled Weather Remains Through Next Weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A few light showers and sprinkles will continue this morning
along and east of I-15. The air is pretty dry so the chance of
anything substantial isn`t there at the moment. Over the next 36
hours, we will see a low drop out of Canada and move east along
the US/Canada border. This create more than one round of showers
and isolated thunderstorms starting this afternoon and
continuing into Monday afternoon. We did temper the potential
for heavier rainfall because the air is dry. That doesn`t though
we could see some spots seeing closer 0.10" with a thunderstorm
or pocket of "heavier" rainfall. Precipitation amounts overall
are light. We could see some places across the eastern and
southeast highlands pushing 0.30" of moisture. Higher elevation
snow is possible with 1-3" forecast with locally higher amounts
near Island Park, Big Holes, and Bear River Range. The bigger
story will be wind. Winds will pick up again today with gusts of
25-35 mph across portions of the Snake Plain. The peak for wind
will be tomorrow though. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible across
higher elevations. However, we are expecting gusts 35-50 mph
across portions of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. We will
likely need a WIND ADVISORY if the current forecast holds, with
strong crosswinds and pockets of blowing dust expected. What
shower/thunderstorm activity lingering tomorrow afternoon
quickly ends during the evening, along with the wind.
Temperatures today would be in the low/mid 60s for lower
valleys. but running 5-10 degrees colder for tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

We begin a gradual warming trend on Tuesday as highs make a return
to the low 60s throughout the lower elevations. Elsewhere, highs
will be in the 50s. This warming gets going as we experience nearly
zonal flow aloft on Tuesday in between systems which then
transitions into southwest flow aloft on Wednesday as our next
shortwave trough approaches Eastern Idaho. This shortwave will
increase chances for showers and even an isolated storm or two on
Wednesday, though at this point it looks to be mainly confined to
the Eastern Highlands. This is just the first in a series of troughs
heading our way and while there are still disagreements in exact
timing and placement of troughs, ensemble clusters generally agree
on the influence of troughing over our area for Friday through
Sunday. Even so, highs return to the mid and upper 60s for our
valley locations Wednesday and Thursday. Friday will likely be the
warmest day of the week as highs return to the low 70s in the
valleys and 60s in the mid elevations. With the increasing
precipitation chances over the weekend, highs will fall back into
the 50s and low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Radar shows a few showers lingering around DIJ early this morning,
though little precipitation is actually making it to the ground and
we are seeing a bit of a break in the activity at our other sites.
Winds will pick up again this afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30 kts.
Showers make a return this evening along a passing cold front with a
chance for a few thunderstorms. The 24-hour HREF thunder probability
shows about a 10 to 20 percent chance at SUN, a 20 to 30 percent
chance at IDA and DIJ, and a 30 to 40 percent chance at BYI and PIH.
Wind gusts will be even stronger behind the front on Monday, pushing
into the 35 to 40 kt range.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...AMM