708
FXUS65 KPIH 141842
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1242 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will remain ABOVE AVERAGE for the next several
  days

- Monsoon moisture will keep showers and thunderstorms around

- There is some potential for decent rain-producing storms but
  dry air may be hard to overcome initially

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The story over the next several days will be temperatures remain
generally in the 90s across lower elevations, with monsoon
moisture across the region. Initially this pattern,
unfortunately, is not one to necessarily give any longer lead
time on pinpointing more widespread areas of any type of decent
rainfall. The main issue comes down to timing stronger surges of
moisture and where we might early cloud cover that would limit
sunshine and better instability for thunderstorms. We have a
pretty substantial band of clouds already across western and
portions of central Idaho this morning, and that really doesn`t
seem to be moving to much east or west. What does that mean? We
will see some limited thunderstorm coverage today in those
areas. There is very limited monsoon moisture through this
afternoon farther east, which means IF we can get something
going...it will also be isolated. Current forecasts for rainfall
over 0.10" currently is running under 25%. There are a couple of
things going FOR and AGAINST seeing locally heavy downpours. The
air at the surface is still going to be dry even though humidity
will be on the rise, which is an AGAINST factor. That said,
this surge of monsoon moisture is deeper which is a FOR factor.
We will actually see this surge of moisture tonight and
Wednesday shift east across most of eastern Idaho. This will
keep some light rain and even perhaps a couple of thunderstorms
going. By tomorrow afternoon, we will see redevelopment of
storms. Right now, this appears to happen over portions of the
central mountains, eastern highlands, and south toward the Utah
border east of I-15. The overall chance of rainfall tomorrow is
under 30% closer to the Montana border, but much lower anywhere
else we get development. Elsewhere, slightly drier air works
into eastern Idaho and cuts off any potential for showers and
storms. There is a 10-40% chance of gusts over 35 mph with gusts
reaching 45-50 mph today, and 10-25% on Wednesday. Outside of
any showers/virga and storms, gusts of 15-25 mph are possible.

Beyond that, monsoon moisture remains in place for a daily
chance of showers and storms through the weekend and into early
next week. High temperatures will remain for the most part ABOVE
AVERAGE and in the 90s, although in reality some areas may end
up cooler due to cloud cover and others higher into the 90s due
to increased sunshine. Just like today and tomorrow, locally
heavier downpours and areas of higher storm coverage will be
dependent on how the pattern evolves. As mentioned before,
sometimes this may be easily resolvable until we get to 12-24
hours out for any given day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Expect VFR conditions with monsoon moisture keeping mid and high
level clouds around through the period. Wind gusts outside of
storms today should be 10-20kts, although there is a low chance
of gusts over 30kts with any stronger storm that may develop.
Maintained VCSH at SUN, BYI, and DIJ at the moment as there have
been some dry showers/virga around, especially in the western
half of the forecast area. The risk of thunderstorms at those
airports remains low, but non zero, so it`ll be worth watching
over the next few hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

We are finally locked into a more summertime pattern as high
pressure generally holds to our south and east. Daily high
temperatures will be in the 90s for the most part, which is not
as hot as this past weekend, but still ABOVE AVERAGE. With
monsoon moisture in place, there will be a daily chance of
showers and thunderstorms. We will likely see fluctuations day
to day, based on where we get better afternoon sunshine and/or
deeper surges of moisture. Admittedly, trying to forecast more
than 12-24 hours out where we may see stronger showers/storms
producing wetting rains, can prove problematic as models
sometimes over/under forecast early day clouds. This may impact
any type of lead time for RED FLAG conditions on a daily basis.
For today and tonight, we expect monsoon moisture to increase
and spread a bit farther east across eastern Idaho. That said,
wetting rain potential is under 25% due to dry air currently in
place and lack of widespread instability. This will hold over
the central mountains south toward the Utah border across Zones
425 and 427. Lightning coverage will overall be isolated but
could be more concentrated in some spots, including past
midnight. Farther east, we do expect a few dry storms this
afternoon and evening mainly over higher terrain. For tomorrow
afternoon, as this surge of moisture shifts east, there is some
"drier air" that shifts into central Idaho and up the Snake
Plain. This will limit and shower and thunderstorm potential to
475/476, Zone 410 north of Idaho Falls, 411, and 413 east of
I-15. The chance of wetting rain is under 30% and confined for
now near the Montana border, which is where we MAY see scattered
coverage in a limited area.

Beyond that, we will need to monitor any surges of deeper
monsoon moisture for any uptick in wetting rainfall and
thunderstorm coverage each day.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes