217
FXUS65 KPIH 220447
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1047 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds continue for the next few days

- Potential for some dry thunderstorms

- Critical to near critical fire conditions through midweek

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

We will continue with periodic chances of showers and
thunderstorms through tomorrow night. Through this evening,
there is a 20-70% chance of gusts over 35 mph with still some
potential a few gusts with storms near 60 mph. The chance of
outflow winds over 35 mph drops substantially tomorrow, but
still a 30% chance or less. There is a little better potential
for rain producing storms, but we`re only still seeing a 15-25%
chance of amounts over 0.10" and that is mainly across the
central mountains. Outside of storms, it will be breezy as
well. Today, gusts of 20-40 mph are possible...with gusts
tomorrow topping out in the 20-35 mph range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Beginning mid-week, ensembles show weak high pressure building over
Southeast Idaho through late week as a closed low develops along the
northern CA coast. Long-range models continue to show some weak
moisture signals lifting into Idaho in southwest flow through next
weekend. By this time, 500mb ensemble clusters start to differ a bit
regarding how long the upper low to our west will influence our
weather. The National Blend PoP forecast generally includes daily
chances up to around 25 percent along the perimeter of our CWA.
Aside from what looks to be isolated activity each afternoon,
temperatures will warm a few degrees initially to right around
seasonal norms and remain fairly stable through the rest of the
week. Winds through the period look to range light to breezy.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1039 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Showers and thunderstorms have mostly subsided for the night.
Only DIJ has a chance of showers getting close the next couple
of hours, which would bring slightly gusty winds.

Moisture and instability from a system passing north of our
area will bring another chance of mid to late afternoon/early
evening showers and thunderstorms again tomorrow. THE HREF
model is showing almost the same path for showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow that happened today. This convection will
start by mid to late afternoon tomorrow near BYI and start by
late afternoon near PIH and and start near IDA and DIJ by early
evening. Any thunderstorms that are close will produce gusty
winds of 30 to 45 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Near critical fire weather conditions are anticipated again today
across Fire Weather Zones 410, 413, and potentially a portion of 427
due to near critical RH and critical winds. Minimum RH obs are
already as low as 13 to 17 percent in portions of Fire Weather Zone
413 this afternoon. We expect areas to meet critical criteria at
times during the day today, but humidity will trend higher as
moisture increases courtesy of the incoming trough. Synoptic wind
gusts will range 30 to 40 mph this afternoon. Isolated storms
areawide today will also increase fire danger as storms will be
capable of producing 40 to 50 mph outflows with isolated gusts
potentially exceeding 50 mph, especially across FWZ 410 where high
resolution models indicate the greatest potential for gusts over 50
mph. Winds will be lighter Tuesday, with winds becoming fairly
stable heading into mid to late week. RH will increase on Tuesday
but trend drier again beginning Wednesday as weak high pressure
builds over the region.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...Cropp
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...Cropp