968
FXUS65 KPIH 241728
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1028 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds have returned across the region, with a few pockets
  of very light snow. The low clouds will remain a problematic
  forecast point into the weekend.

- Cooler for the weekend with isolated snow chances across the
  eastern highlands late today into early Sunday

- Continued dry conditions into next week with a warming trend
  likely, although valley inversions could wreck havoc with
  this.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

Observations and radar showing a region of very light snow
falling out of the stratus deck. High clouds passing aloft may
be interacting with the stratus in a seeder-feeder mechanism.
Very light accumulations have already been observed, so have
adjusted the forecast to increase the stratus coverage into mid
afternoon, add light PoPs and minimal QPF to obtain small
(<0.5") accumulations into the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

A weak cold front has moved through the area and cold, drier
northerly air is moving down the Snake River plain. Some models
are now showing the northerly flow stalling somewhere around
Pocatello this morning. So, stratus and patchy fog will likely
continue over the Eastern Magic valley/Shoshone region this
morning. Overnight lows in the Eastern Magic Valley/Shoshone
region will likely be limited to the teens with cloud cover
expected to linger. The area will remain dry however throughout
the region tonight and into the afternoon hours on Saturday. For
this morning, expect single digit temperatures and below zero
for mountain areas for our northern areas. For today, expecting
all areas to stay below freezing for daytime highs despite the
fairly ample sunshine expected.

A weak shortwave will move into Central Montana and western
Wyoming late today and into Sunday and this will likely increase
cloud cover around the Island Park area and into the eastern
highlands late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Could see some
snow showers as well but not expecting much, if any,
accumulation with these. Temperatures will remain colder than
normal on Sunday with morning lows in the teens in the Snake
Plain/Eastern Magic valley and single digits elsewhere. Daytime
temperatures Sunday will generally be in the mid to upper 20s.
There will be a few lower areas across our southwest that will
see temperatures in the low 30s. Models are suggesting low
stratus clearing out of the Eastern Magic valley late today into
Sunday with stratus returning for our northeast areas with a
weak wave moving down. There is not a lot of confidence in
stratus clearing out of the Eastern Magic valley. Models are
showing southwest flow to continue and move back up the Snake
Plain. Southwest winds would be favorable for stratus to
continue/return.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

In the wake of the aforementioned shortwave, upper level ridging
is expected to again build across eastern Idaho. This will keep
things dry for much of next week. A few weak impulses embedded
in the upper flow aloft could bring some increased cloud cover
but not expecting much chance for precip. The biggest forecast
challenge will be whether or not we see a return of lower valley
stratus. Based on what happened this week, it`s certainly
possible with the pattern being similar in nature. Current
forecast does not show this however and has temps returning to
the upper 30s and lower 40s in the lower valleys for much of
next week. If stratus transpires though, temps will be much
cooler. Time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1016 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

Stratus continues to be the bane of existence for some folks this
morning. We have been seeing MVFR-IFR weather due to low
ceilings mostly, with an added bonus of seeder feeder snow
impacting PIH and potentially IDA. There is some optimism on
seeing the stratus thinning out based on visual observation and
trends in the higher resolution cloud cover forecasts, but
confidence is low again on if it completely goes away in the
next 24 hours. Trends show it eroding on the north and west
sides today, with things eventually clearing out early this
afternoon for SUN and BYI. We did keep some scattered low clouds
around through tonight and tomorrow morning, which could be an
issue for SUN when winds go variable and eventually
southerly...meaning any lingering stratus wouldn`t have far to
travel to create issues this afternoon. Model trends eventually
have enough westerly flow that once it erodes at BYI, it
shouldn`t come back. We will have to monitor to see if that
really happens. At PIH and IDA, if we can remain or go scattered
this afternoon, it may not last long. Again, model trends show
stratus filling this evening through tomorrow morning. On top of
that, we COULD see seeder feeder snow again which would drop
conditions even lower. We have included IFR/LIFR weather during
this period for both airports. For DIJ, we will actually see a
weak "wave" drop along the Divide later tonight and
tomorrow...and bringing light snow and low clouds to the airport
starting this evening. We did drop them to MVFR/high end IFR
for now. With light winds, it may not take much to drop them
well into IFR if snow is heavy enough. The forecast for here may
turn out to be the highest confidence TAF during the period.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DMH
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...Keyes