832
FXUS65 KPIH 030824
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
224 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms every day through Saturday with July
  4th likely the most widespread coverage as an upper level wave
  pushes east.

- Cooler temperatures beginning Thursday with highs only in the
  70s and 80s Thursday through Saturday.

- Overall dry conditions are expected to return by Sunday and
  continue into next week with an overall warming trend as well.
  Temperatures will return to the 90s for lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 138 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Our area is in moist south to southwest flow aloft ahead of a
trough that will come through our area on Friday. Look for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, mainly
in the afternoon. Gusty winds will be the biggest threat from
thunderstorms, gusts around 35 to 50 mph. Brief moderate
rainfall is also expected but most storms today will be mostly
dry, especially along the Utah border. Temperatures drop this
afternoon to the 70s and mid 80s across the area.

Friday looks even more wet with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected. Wetting rains (0.10 to up to 0.50) are
likely for most areas, especially our northern areas. The
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall for our northern areas (Central mountains,
Lost River Range and Montana Divide), which could lead to flash
flooding. In addition to moderate to heavy rainfall,
thunderstorms will likely have gusty winds (30 to 45 mph).
Afternoon temperatures drop even more on Friday to the 60s to
low 70s in the mountains and to upper 70s to low 80s in the
valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 138 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Conditions will trend much drier beginning Saturday, although a
shortwave will keep slight chances for isolated showers and storms
across the northern extent of the CWA, mostly along the Montana
Divide region. Upper-level flow will turn zonal early next week
before high pressure builds in beginning Tuesday. This will keep
conditions dry throughout the remainder of the extended period, with
temperatures continuously warming into the middle of next week. Many
locations will observe above normal temperatures throughout most of
next week, with daytime highs rising into the 90s across the low
elevations on Monday/Tuesday, 80s in the mid-elevations and mountain
valleys, and 70s in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 138 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to initiate around
20z today. Have forecast VCTS at all terminals through 03z/04z with
the exception of KSUN, which is expected to see an earlier end to
convection. HREF thunder probabilities range 10 to 30 percent chance
at KSUN, 30 to 50 percent at KBYI, KPIH, and KIDA, and 50 to 60
percent at KDIJ. Gusty thunderstorm outflows of 35 to 50 mph will be
the main threat again today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Trend still in place for increased thunderstorm coverage for
today and Friday (July 4th). Outflow winds from storms will
have gusts of around 35 to 50 mph. Have issued a red flag for
fire zone 413 for scattered thunderstorms from 1 PM this
afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening. Fire zone 427 also has
scattered thunderstorms forecasted this afternoon into early
evening. A red flag warning may be needed pending updated fuel
status and coordination with fire partners. There is the
potential for overnight storms tonight, but confidence is low.
The increase in precipitation comes with a decrease in
temperatures and increase in daytime humidity. By Friday, most
thunderstorms should be able to produce a wetting rain. The bulk
of the moisture shifts east for the weekend, allowing for a
warming trend to return to East Idaho. Humidities should return
toward more seasonable levels, but isolated thunderstorms may
continue across higher terrain zones through Sunday. High
pressure builds back into the Intermountain West for the early
part of next week, for continued drying and warming trend.
Temperatures in low elevations return to the low 90s by early
next week and return to mid 90s by the middle of next week.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ413.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...Cropp
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...TW