088
FXUS65 KPIH 031712
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1112 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  continue through Monday, primarily each afternoon. Stronger
  storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, small hail,
  and brief heavy rain.

- Conditions will remain very dry outside of any showers or
  thunderstorms, with near normal to below normal temperatures
  expected through Tuesday.

- Critical fire weather conditions will remain possible this
  week due to scattered thunderstorms further north today and
  Monday, and gusty winds/low RH Monday through Thursday.

- Warmer temperatures will build in for Wednesday, trending
  cooler starting Thursday through next weekend as isolated
  showers and thunderstorms return further north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Early morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave
troughs passing over the PacNW and and northern Rockies, as dry
conditions and mostly clear skies prevail across eastern Idaho.
As a result, daily isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue into Monday, peaking in coverage
each afternoon and evening. For today, the HREF model
probability of thunder through 6 AM MDT Monday shows a 40-60%
chance in the Central Mountains, a 20-30% chance out across the
Shoshone/Arco/Mud Lake Desert northeast into the Eastern
Highlands, and a 5-15% chance elsewhere across the Snake River
Plain down into the South Hills and Southeast Highlands. As
evident by stronger showers and storms yesterday that produced
wind gusts up to 61 mph, a dry low level environment remains in
place and will remain conducive for gusty outflow winds. Given
this storm environment, stronger storms and outflow boundaries
will be capable of producing wind gusts up to around 50 mph,
small hail, and brief heavy rain. The strongest storms today are
expected in eastern Oregon, western Idaho, and the Central
Mountains. Convective initiation will begin around 12 to 3 PM
MDT and continue through this evening, becoming isolated after
sunset into early Monday morning, ahead of dry conditions back
regionwide later in the night. Highs today will be in the
70s/80s to low 90s with afternoon synoptic wind gusts peaking
around 15-30 mph.

For Monday, a more organized mid/upper-level trough will swing
through the PacNW and northern Rockies, supporting another round
of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening hours. The focus of activity on Monday
will remain further north in the Central Mountains, Upper Snake
River Plain, and Eastern Highlands. Stronger storms and outflow
boundaries will again be capable of producing wind gusts up to
around 50 mph, small hail, and brief heavy rain. Highs on Monday
will be in the 70s/80s to low 90s with afternoon synoptic wind
gusts higher than Sunday, peaking around 25-45 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Behind an exiting trough into Montana for Tuesday, dry
conditions are expected across all of eastern Idaho for the
first time in about two weeks as dry southwest/zonal flow
prevails overhead. Under the increasing influence of high
pressure building in out of the south, temperatures will see a
warming trend into Wednesday as highs return to the 80s/90s.
Later in the week, a mid/upper-level trough working southeast
out of British Columbia will pass up and over this ridge of high
pressure, supporting cooling temperatures starting Thursday
into next weekend given the return of zonal/northwest flow.
While the bulk of moisture with this system looks to stay north
of our area, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
in the Central Mountains, Upper Snake River Plain, and Eastern
Highlands Thursday through Saturday. Ensemble model guidance
remains in good agreement through the weekend, keeping this
trough on its eastern progression through Montana, but a few
members are showing the potential for the trough/closed low to
work south along the Idaho-Wyoming border region for Sunday.
This solution would support cooler conditions and continued
precipitation chances, but the NBM maintains the ensemble
agreement at this time and shows dry conditions back starting
Sunday as temperatures return to being on a warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Isolated thunderstorms will largely remain away from terminals
again today, especially further east. HREF indicates up to
around a 30 percent chance of thunder at KSUN and have included
a tempo at KSUN from 02z through 06z for isolated thunderstorms.
Otherwise, have forecast VCSH only at all other terminals
beginning between 23z and 03z this evening, during which CAMs
show isolated showers working through the region. Any storms
will be capable of gusts to around 45 kts. Otherwise, expecting
wind gusts to generally remain under 20 kts this afternoon
before becoming light and variable again this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Daily, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue through Monday, ahead of dry conditions back regionwide
starting Tuesday for the first time in about two weeks. For
today, best scattered coverage will remain in the Central
Mountains east along the Montana Divide, with more isolated
coverage elsewhere. Convective initiation today will begin
around 12 PM to 3 PM MDT and continue through this evening,
becoming isolated after sunset into early Monday morning, ahead
of dry conditions back regionwide later in the night. Stronger
storms will remain capable of producing gusty outflow winds,
small hail, and brief heavy rain. For Monday, look for another
round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
development in the Central Mountains, Upper Snake River Plain,
and Eastern Highlands during the afternoon and evening hours.
Stronger storms will again remain possible. For Tuesday and
Wednesday, dry conditions are expected regionwide for a change,
with isolated showers and storms back in the forecast Thursday
through Saturday primarily further north.

Outside of thunderstorm activity, wind and low RH will be the
primary targets for fire weather headlines this week. RHs each
afternoon through Thursday will remain low in the single
digits/teens/20s, outside of the 20s/30s expected further north
and west on Monday. While wind gusts today outside of any
convection look to peak around 15-30 mph, we will see an
increase starting Monday with gusts peaking around 20-40 mph
through Thursday. Each day due to a combination of gusty winds
and low RH, critical fire weather conditions will be possible.
As such, Red Flag Warnings will likely be needed to capture the
best overlap of winds and low RH this week. Have held off on
issuing any products yet for Monday at this time, however FWZ
410/413 look to be the strongest candidates at this time.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MacKay
LONG TERM...MacKay
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...MacKay