924
FXUS65 KPIH 160445
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1045 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monsoon moisture remains in place through early next week for
  more showers and thunderstorms. Friday looks to be the day
  with the most widespread activity this week.

- Some storms COULD produce decent downpours and gusty winds

- Temperatures SHOULD continue ABOVE AVERAGE but may fluctuate
  based on early day cloud cover

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Main impact is southerly flow aloft is continuing to pump
monsoonal moisture into southeast and central Idaho. There will
be a threat daily for the next week. As of now activity Thursday
looks to be slightly more widespread than today with Friday even
more active and a pretty high chance for everyone. Sunday will
be the day with the best chance of the least convective activity
at this point with an increase again early next week. Humidity
will be fairly high for Idaho with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s
through the next 7 or 8 days. It will remain above normal with
highs expected to remain in the 90s in lower elevations with
days with minimal cloud cover hitting the upper 90s and lower
90s in higher cloud cover and thunderstorm coverage. Lows
generally upper 50s and 60s in low elevations and mid 40s to mid
50s mountains. Winds not expected to be impactful with generally
light speeds other than near any thunderstorm outflows.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Expect VFR conditions to continue overnight into Thursday as showers
and thunderstorms have mostly fizzled out. A few isolated showers
linger, but are not expected to impact TAF sites now. Have
PROB30/VCTS in on Thursday afternoon for the next round of monsoon
moisture at all sites. Confidence is low to moderate on a storm
actually passing directly over any of the terminals, but they will
be nearby and stronger storms could produce gusts around 40 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1226 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Our monsoon pattern keeps hold over Idaho heading into next
week. We have a deeper surge moving through this morning,
shifting east of us by this evening. For today, thunderstorms
will likely remain isolated with a few pockets where scattered
coverage exists...but that is not looking to be widespread at
the moment. The chance of outflow winds over 35 mph is lower
today, nothing higher than 30%. On the flip side, like yesterday
we may see some spots with locally heavy downpours with over
0.20" with any given storm. The next surge of monsoon moisture
arrives during the day tomorrow, but looks "dry" enough for
lighter rainfall amounts even where we get thunderstorms to
develop. Tomorrow may be an interesting day due as lack of
earlier day cloud cover MAY produce more instability, and
increased lightning coverage across higher elevations. That will
be a trend that needs to be monitored for any potential critical
fire weather concerns. There is higher chance of gusts of 35-55
mph (20-60%) with even higher chances across southwest and far
western Idaho.

The ridge shift backs to the northwest a bit through the
weekend, pushing deeper monsoon moisture back across central and
eastern Idaho. This should bring a higher potential of wetting
rains areawide, with lightning coverage highly dependent on
where we get cloud breaks and better instability each day. This
overall pattern remains in place into next week, with some
expected shifting east or west of the main plume of moisture as
low pressure well to the northwest tries to nudge the ridge east
once again...even if briefly. Temperatures should remain ABOVE
AVERAGE in the 80s and 90s..

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GK
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes