622
FXUS65 KPIH 172219
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
419 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monsoonal moisture remains in place through next week for
  more showers and thunderstorms.

- Some storms COULD produce decent downpours and gusty winds and
  hail. With the potential for heavy downpours Friday a flash
  flood watch is in effect Friday afternoon and evening for the
  Wapiti Burn Scar near Stanley.

- Temperatures SHOULD continue ABOVE AVERAGE but may fluctuate
  based on early day cloud cover. Sunday and Monday likely the
  hottest days and also the driest days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Southerly flow aloft continues today into Saturday with showers
and thunderstorms likely this afternoon and evening across
southeast Idaho. Some potential downpours may occur under strong
storms with localized heavy rain and flooding possible. The
Wapiti Burn Scar near Stanley under a flash flood watch.
Saturday will still see at least a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. The southerly flow backs off Sunday and the
monsoonal moisture may be temporarily blocked from entering
Idaho and is likely to be the driest and least covered
thunderstorm day in the next week. Low elevation highs likely
in the 90s both Saturday and Sunday with likely more sun than
today. Mountain highs in the 80s. See an increase in southerly
flow again Tuesday with another wetter period Tuesday into the
middle portion of next week. Have at least a chance of showers
and thunderstorms again Tuesday through next Friday. Maybe
slightly cooler high temperatures in expected cloud cover in the
extended time frame with 80s to lower 90s valleys and mid 70s
to mid 80s mountains, but overnight lows very elevated in the
continued humidity and periodic cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 418 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Main concern is scattered thunderstorms this evening. Storms
could reduce visibilities to at least mvfr levels and possibly
lower. Gusts to around 35 kts are certainly possible in and
around storms as well. Most activity should dissipate this
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Monsoonal moisture remains entrenched over central and eastern
Idaho. RED FLAG WARNINGS remain in place across higher
elevations today for scattered thunderstorms. Have started to
see development early this afternoon across the region and
although some will be very wet under the strongest cells not
everyone will see wetting rains with them. Expect most outflow
winds to be in the 30 to 40 mph range due to lack of heating
from cloud cover today but could still see isolated gusts higher
than that. Hail is also likely under the stronger storms.

Showers and storms on Saturday will most likely remain over
higher elevations but even low elevations are at risk for
isolated storms, with any development across 410 and 425
relying on outflow boundaries for a focus. There is a 30-60%
chance tomorrow for gusts over 35 mph and we could still see
some locally heavy rainfall with a few storms. Sunday SUPPOSEDLY
ends up pretty dry with storm chances under 10% and hot
conditions. This seems to be a bit aggressive, in terms of
drying things out, and we may end up actually with at least
isolated storms closer to the Montana and Utah borders.

More southerly flow aloft returns Tuesday after a bit of a break
Sunday and Monday with likely showers and thunderstorms again
Tuesday through next week.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ411-413-
422-427-475-476.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GK
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...GK