436
FXUS65 KPIH 221039
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
439 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry today with slightly above normal temps.

- Unsettled weather for much of the remainder of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Expect mainly quiet weather across central and east Idaho for
Tuesday. Some models are showing a few late afternoon showers
developing around Mackay into the southern Lemhi region late this
afternoon. This is in response to a weak low pressure system that
will arrive on Wednesday. Expect showers to develop across the
central mountains and southeast highlands Tuesday Night into
Wednesday, depending upon which model you favor. The GFS and now the
NAM seem to be more consistent in developing showers across the
central mountains Tuesday Night. Little less consistent for the
southeast highlands, seems to be more of an isolated threat there.
The NBM seems to be playing catch-up, but this is a low qpf system
so that probably is weighing the pops down as well. Chances improve
across these two areas on Wednesday when some heating occurs. There
is also some instability to work with as well so an isolated
thunderstorm is possible as well. Chances in the Snake Plain and
Magic Valley look low for any sort of shower or thunderstorm
activity, probably more of an isolated threat as this is a weak
system. With that said, not much wind to deal with as well. Temps
the next couple days look to be slightly above average, with highs
in the Snake Plain and Magic Valley likely in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Shortwave trough will continue lifting northward with the next upper
trough setting up along the PacNW coast by Friday. 500 mb ensemble
clusters indicate differences amongst models regarding the track of
the low as it shifts inland and eastward. That said, the National
Blend includes isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms daily
throughout the extended period. NBM mean QPF through the weekend
timeframe generally ranges 0.25" to 0.40" in the central mountains
and east and southeast highlands and mountains, with localized
higher elevations closer to 0.50" to 0.75" for this same period.
Daily highs will drop over ten degrees behind this system, with 50s
in the lower elevations, 30s in the mountains, and 40s in mountain
valleys. This will send snow levels lower, with light snow possible
above 6,000 feet or so late weekend/early next week. By next
Tuesday, clusters show varying strengths of high pressure building
in behind the departing trough with the National Blend carrying
relatively lower PoPs by then.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 433 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025

VFR conditions will persist throughout the period. Generally
light W/SW winds 7 to 12 kts with gusts to around 22 kts this
afternoon at KIDA and typical diurnal wind shifts at KSUN. High
clouds will increase in coverage throughout the period with
chances for rain showers heading into Wednesday morning.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...Cropp
AVIATION...Cropp