745
FXUS65 KPIH 040320
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
920 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued cool today with isolated evening showers in the
  Upper Snake River Highlands but predominately dry.

- Warming trend begins Wednesday and continues through the
  weekend with very warm temperatures again over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave
troughs passing through Montana and Wyoming as cool and dry
conditions prevail across eastern Idaho under partly to mostly
sunny skies. Given these glancing systems working along the
Continental Divide NW to SE, this will keep cool temperatures
around into Wednesday courtesy of predominant N/NW flow. While
moisture transport remains limited overall, we will see about a
10-20% chance of isolated shower and thunderstorm development
this afternoon and evening across the Upper Snake River Plain
and Eastern Highlands. The HREF model probability of thunder
also reflects this well with a 10-30% chance of thunder east of
I-15 to the Wyoming border region with a focus on the Island
Park and Teton Valley region. For Wednesday, these shortwave
troughs will shift NE, further limiting our shower and
thunderstorm chances. As a result, have maintained a dry
forecast for tomorrow, but there will be a nonzero 5-10% chance
of a mountain shower or two during the afternoon and evening
hours with the most likely result just a diurnal increase in
clouds during the afternoon hours.

Highs both today and Wednesday will be in the 60s/70s, near to
below seasonal norms for early June. Overnight lows will also be
on the cooler side in the 30s/40s both tonight and Wednesday
night, dropping down into the 20s for some of our colder
mountain basins such as the Sawtooth Valley and Copper Basin.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

West to northwest flow will keep a few mountains showers and
storms around through Friday. High pressure will build and keep
things dry Saturday through most of Monday, before low pressure
slides in off the Pacific and greatly increases the chance of
rain and thunder. Temperatures really jump over the weekend and
for Monday, with many lower valley spots hitting low to even mid
90s...which would be close/breaking record highs if current
trends hold true. Looking at any type of heat-related headlines,
overnight lows are cool enough that we are expecting any
accumulating heat impacts. That usually factors into those
headlines and with things remaining cool at night, we are
expecting any issues at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 920 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

VFR weather will continue through the period. We will see pockets of
scattered to broken mid level clouds in the upper valley. During the
overnight hours a chance for -SHRA at DIJ. It may not even amount to
more than some sprinkles with drier air at the surface in place. On
Wednesday VFR condtions and light winds throughout the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Will have a similar day to Monday with continued cooler
temperatures with highs only in the 50s to lower 60s mountains
and upper 60s to lower 70s valleys. Minimum humidity generally
20 to 30 percent. Winds not expected to be significant either
today or Wednesday. Expect a fairly significant warming trend
late week through the weekend with well above normal
temperatures returning. Any precipitation through the week is
expected to be very light.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MacKay
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...VP
FIRE WEATHER...GK