248
FXUS65 KPIH 201004
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
404 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions continue for the next few days

- Critical fire weather conditions today and perhaps again
  Monday

- Potential for isolated dry thunderstorms early on in the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Early morning satellite imagery shows some mid to high level clouds
across parts of the Snake Plain but most of the region is void of
clouds currently. The second half of the weekend will be very
similar to the first half with another hot, dry, breezy day expected
across the region. As such, Red Flag warnings continue across
portions of eastern Idaho for low RHs and gusty winds. Speaking of
the latter, expecting winds in the 10-15 mph range for many areas
but closer to 20-30 across the Arco Desert and into parts of the
upper Snake Plain with even higher gusts expected. Doesn`t look like
precip will be of much concern as hi-res CAMs are generally void of
any showers/storms but there is a very low chance of maybe something
developing along the Montana Divide although this is too low to be
explicitly mentioned in the forecast. Not much changes as we get into
Monday although H5 heights are a tad lower with an upper trough
centered well north of the area. This should help lower temps by a
couple of degrees although it will remain breezy with the tightened
pressure gradient still in place. Temps may drop just enough to keep
min RHs above critical thresholds for Red Flag conditions but it`ll
be close. CAMs do show a bit more potential for some isolated
shower/storm development during Monday afternoon, namely across the
central mountains and into the eastern highlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

The extended portion of the forecast looks relatively quiet with a
typical summertime pattern in place. As the low from Monday slowly
moves north into Tuesday, models show ridging trying to take control
over the area for much of the rest of the week. We will be on the
far western edge of the ridge and with SW flow aloft basically into
the weekend, wouldn`t be surprised to see some waves of moisture
sneak into the region sparking at least some isolated PoP chances at
some point over the days ahead. Temperatures look to stay warm, at
or above average, which equates to upper 80s to mid 90s for the
lower elevations throughout the upcoming week, and likely
beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Winds are once again the main issue today. Expect gusts this
afternoon of 20 to 30 kts in most locations. SUN will most likely
see more of a west-southwest crosswind this afternoon as opposed to
the standard upvalley south to southeast wind.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 114 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Red Flag Warnings are in effect for zones 410, 413, 425, and 427
where the combination of dry fuels, gusty winds, and low humidity
will create dangerous fire conditions. Humidities in these areas
will generally be in the low to mid teens. Wind gusts of 30 to 40
mph are likely this afternoon across the Snake Plain and Magic
Valley. Gusts to around 25 mph are likely across the southern
highlands.

We could see a repeat performance on Monday afternoon with
comparable humidities still in place. Winds are expected to be as
strong and perhaps slightly stronger.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ410-413-425-427.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13