024
FXUS65 KPIH 221031
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
431 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued potential for some isolated, gusty showers/storms
  during the afternoon and evening hours

- Slightly cooler today but temperatures will slowly trend
  upwards starting Wednesday and continuing into the weekend
  remaining at or above normal into next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 136 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Early morning satellite imagery shows clouds remaining in place over
eastern Idaho in association with an upper level trough across the
panhandle. In fact, still seeing some rare overnight convection
producing some showers and some gusty winds across the far SE corner
of the area. These showers will likely come to an end over the next
few hours before things quiet down at least until the mid-afternoon
when we`ll likely see another round of isolated showers/storms later
today. Temperatures this afternoon will be noticeably cooler compared
to yesterday with valley temps in the low to mid 80s expected today.
Winds will also be a bit lower compared to Monday but still a touch
breezy, especially across the Arco Desert where winds will run in
the 20-25 mph range, with higher gusts. Hi-res CAMs once again show
some isolated showers/storms developing later today but with PWATs
remaining in the 0.5-0.8 inch range, they`ll likely be mostly of the
dry variety but we may be able to squeeze a little rain out of a
few. Nevertheless, the biggest threat with these will remain gusty
outflow winds and lightning.  As we move into Wednesday, the trough
that has brought a bit more clouds and precip chances will begin to
move north allowing high pressure to reclaim its throne across the
area. Temperatures will begin their upward trend, accordingly, but
it`ll be a gradual warmup throughout the week and into the weekend.
We`ll likely see some isolated showers/storms across the higher
terrain of the South Hills and up towards the Montana Divide but
much of the area will continue to be dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 136 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025

The extended forecast period is best summarized with temperatures
likely to remain on the warmer side of average by a few degrees each
day with things continuing to trend upwards as we get into early
next week. An area of low pressure across northern California
throughout the mid to late work week will keep SW flow aloft in
place over the region which should allow at least some slight
influxes of moisture from time to time which will give us some
isolated precip chances through Saturday, mainly across the higher
terrain zones. Models continue to show some a strong area of high
pressure developing over the weekend across the Central Plains and
the western extent of this COULD reach in to our area. This would
bring temps potentially in to the mid to maybe upper 90s early next
week depending on how things ultimately shake out. Either way,
expect above normal temps to continue with limited precip
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 428 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025

VFR conditions mainly expected through the period as today looks
very similar to yesterday across eastern Idaho. Winds will be a
touch lower during the afternoon and evening hours, closer to 10-15
kts, at valley terminals with some higher gusts possible. Hi-res
models show another round for some isolated showers/storms to
develop during the afternoon/evening which could impact all
terminals except for KSUN. Although chances of these impacting any
particular airfield are low, gusty winds are at least possible in
association with them if the pass close to a terminal. As such,
maintained PROB30 mention as these showers/storms could have some 30-
40 kt gusts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Winds will be lighter today, although still breezy across mainly
zone 410 with winds becoming fairly stable heading into mid to late
week as high pressure begins to take control of local weather once
again. RHs will increase on today with slightly cooler temperatures
but begin to trend drier again starting Wednesday as weak high
pressure slowly takes hold. Precipitation chances look bleak for
much of the week although some isolated high terrain showers/storms
could transpire over the days ahead, chances are low. The weekend
looks increasingly dry with warming temperatures as the region will
be on the western edge of a potent area of high pressure well to our
east. This will likely lead to multiple days of critical RHs but
winds don`t look to be too problematic during this period but it
will certainly be hot and dry.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...McKaughan