820
FXUS65 KPIH 020416
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1016 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  continue into early next week, primarily each afternoon and
  evening in the mountains. Stronger storms will be capable of
  producing gusty winds, small hail, and brief heavy rain.

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect today for Idaho Fire Weather
  Zones 410/413/425/427 for gusty winds, low relative humidity,
  and isolated mountain thunderstorms from 2 PM to 10 PM MDT.

- Conditions will remain very dry outside of any showers or
  storms, with near normal to below normal temperatures into
  early next week.

- Warmer and dry conditions will return for mid to late next
  week under the increasing influence of high pressure.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Satellite imagery shows shortwave center located along the Montana
border, slowly lifting northeast. Radar imagery shows cells already
beginning to develop across portions of the central mountains and
southern highlands. Have nudged precip chances up for the afternoon
and early evening across portions of the southern highlands where
NBM is underperforming development. Coverage should remain isolated
except becoming more scattered closer to the Montana border. Gust
potential around 50 mph is expected. Saturday looks very similar
across the border, except maybe some additional coverage along the
Wyoming border.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Daily thunderstorm chances continue through the remainder of the
weekend and into Monday, generally across higher terrain. Drier
conditions are expected toward midweek next week as high pressure
builds over the south, allowing a weak ridge to extend into southern
Idaho. Temperatures warm back to near to above normal, allowing
breezy conditions to develop each afternoon. By late week, models
once again try to flatten the ridge of a series of shortwaves along
the Canadian border. Track of these features keeps moisture
generally north of the region for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1016 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Expect some virga to drift through the Magic Valley
into the lower Snake Plain overnight into early Saturday morning.
Included VCSH at SUN, BYI, and PIH to account for this. Models show
most of these showers dissipating by the time they get to IDA. Looks
like most, if not all, of the TAF sites will mostly likely not be
affected by storms tomorrow afternoon. A few gusts to 20 kts will
remain likely at PIH and IDA tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

A RED FLAG WARNING remains in effect until 10 PM MDT tonight for
Fire Weather Zones 410, 413, 425, and 427 for gusty winds, low RHs,
and isolated thunderstorms. Storms today will be capable of
producing wind gusts up to 50 mph, isolated small hail, and brief
downpours. Outside of storms, winds will be gusting 25 to 35 mph
with min RHs this afternoon ranging from 15 to 20 percent. RHs will
be higher in the Central Mountains, or FWZ 475 and 476, closer to 25
to 40 percent. Storms in FWZ 422 will be a bit more isolated in
nature, which is why this zone was left out of the RFW today.

Saturday will be similar, but min RHs increase just slightly, closer
to about 20 percent. Wind gusts will be slightly decreased, too, in
the 15 to 25 mph range. More isolated thunderstorms are also
expected, particularly around Zones 413, 427, 475, and 476. However,
given the isolated nature of the storms, the increase in RHs, and
decrease in gusts, will not be issuing any Red Flag Warning for
Saturday. That said, keep in mind that fire weather conditions will
still be near-critical.

Thunderstorm chances finally begin to degrease by Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week, but we will also see temperatures begin to
warm back up at the same time. So while we likely won`t see any fire
weather headlines due to thunderstorms for most of next week, the
potential will remain due to low RHs and gusty winds.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...AMM