245
FXUS65 KPIH 151922
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
122 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monsoon moisture remains in place through early next week for
  more showers and thunderstorms. Friday looks to be the day
  with the most widespread activity this week.

- Some storms COULD produce decent downpours and gusty winds

- Temperatures SHOULD continue ABOVE AVERAGE but may fluctuate
  based on early day cloud cover

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Main impact is southerly flow aloft is continuing to pump
monsoonal moisture into southeast and central Idaho. There will
be a threat daily for the next week. As of now activity Thursday
looks to be slightly more widespread than today with Friday even
more active and a pretty high chance for everyone. Sunday will
be the day with the best chance of the least convective activity
at this point with an increase again early next week. Humidity
will be fairly high for Idaho with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s
through the next 7 or 8 days. It will remain above normal with
highs expected to remain in the 90s in lower elevations with
days with minimal cloud cover hitting the upper 90s and lower
90s in higher cloud cover and thunderstorm coverage. Lows
generally upper 50s and 60s in low elevations and mid 40s to mid
50s mountains. Winds not expected to be impactful with generally
light speeds other than near any thunderstorm outflows.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Monsoonal
moisture continues to bring BKN/OVC CIGs to IDA and DIJ for a
few more hours before we should begin to see some clearing. Not
expecting much precip chance today as hi-res models show a bit
of a break this evening and overnight. Still a low-end chance
for a stray shower/storm but not high enough to include
mention in the forecast. Things look to stay dry through the
period but some isolated precip chances will be possible just
beyond the current 18Z period into Thursday afternoon/evening.
Winds should be light, around 10 kts or less, through the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1226 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Our monsoon pattern keeps hold over Idaho heading into next
week. We have a deeper surge moving through this morning,
shifting east of us by this evening. For today, thunderstorms
will likely remain isolated with a few pockets where scattered
coverage exists...but that is not looking to be widespread at
the moment. The chance of outflow winds over 35 mph is lower
today, nothing higher than 30%. On the flip side, like yesterday
we may see some spots with locally heavy downpours with over
0.20" with any given storm. The next surge of monsoon moisture
arrives during the day tomorrow, but looks "dry" enough for
lighter rainfall amounts even where we get thunderstorms to
develop. Tomorrow may be an interesting day due as lack of
earlier day cloud cover MAY produce more instability, and
increased lightning coverage across higher elevations. That will
be a trend that needs to be monitored for any potential critical
fire weather concerns. There is higher chance of gusts of 35-55
mph (20-60%) with even higher chances across southwest and far
western Idaho.

The ridge shift backs to the northwest a bit through the
weekend, pushing deeper monsoon moisture back across central and
eastern Idaho. This should bring a higher potential of wetting
rains areawide, with lightning coverage highly dependent on
where we get cloud breaks and better instability each day. This
overall pattern remains in place into next week, with some
expected shifting east or west of the main plume of moisture as
low pressure well to the northwest tries to nudge the ridge east
once again...even if briefly. Temperatures should remain ABOVE
AVERAGE in the 80s and 90s..

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GK
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes