940
FXUS65 KPIH 112040
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
140 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisories extended through Thursday
  afternoon.

- Temperatures continue above normal for both highs and lows the
  next three days and nights, except in alpine basins like
  Stanley.

- Winds stay light until the weekend, when it becomes breezy.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Afternoon satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover in
place across the area as moisture as rain and snow continue to
fall across the region. After some early morning snow in the
lower Snake Plain, we`ve changed over to rain while a rain/snow
mix is still lingering across portions of the upper Snake with
all snow across the higher terrain. Hi-res CAMs show most of the
precip tapering off shortly after sunset with just some
scattered rain/snow showers (elevation dependent) continuing
into the morning and afternoon hours on Thursday. Winter Weather
Advisory remains in place this afternoon and into the day
tomorrow although it may be canceled early as additional
snowfall accumulations in the eastern highlands after this
evening will be pretty hit-or-miss in nature and should amount
to much based on the latest forecast. Temperatures continue to
run above mid-Februrary norms throughout the region the next few
days although cloud cover will make it feel a bit more on the
chilly side with not too much sunshine for most.

Late week and into the weekend, weak ridging builds overhead
supporting mainly dry conditions outside of some orographically
enhanced showers across the central mountains and eastern
highlands but the lower elevations are expected to remain dry.
Despite expected mid/high level cloud cover, lower elevation
temps in the mid 40s to lower 50s appear likely with the area
residing on the northern edge of a ridge of high pressure.

This ridge will begin to give way to broad upper troughing
across the western U.S. as we move into the start of the
upcoming work week. The pressure gradient looks to tighten
across our area allowing for winds to increase Mon-Wed next week
and the SW flow aloft looks to support bringing in moisture off
the Pacific into eastern Idaho. At the onset Monday, snow
levels look to be too high favoring rain in the lower elevations
and snow in the mountains. As we move into Tuesday and
Wednesday, snow levels look to gradually lower as cooler air
moves in but just how much remains to be seen as models have
differing opinions on the depth of the colder air. NBM blend is
hedging its bets and lies as a compromise solution between the
model discrepancy which shows snow levels hovering right around
valley floors at the end of the extended forecast period.
Confidence this far out in time is still low however so expect
things to change over the days ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1103 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Main impact will be lower ceilings in bands of rain and snow
working through southeast Idaho. Will have IFR to MVFR ceilings
at all sites today. Will have some lifting of ceilings this
afternoon but returned IFR conditions tonight at PIH, IDA and
DIJ. Have VFR ceilings overnight at SUN and BYI. Expect the
lower ceilings at DIJ, IDA and PIH through 18Z Thursday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Thursday for IDZ060-063-
064-066.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McKaughan
AVIATION...GK