854
FXUS65 KPIH 080416
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
916 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and gusty winds diminish tonight

- Warm and dry conditions return starting this weekend

- The next chance of precipitation likely holds off until the
  end of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1207 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

Showers continue this afternoon across the area, with a more
concentrated convergence/frontal band shifting out of the
central mountains to the south and east. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph
have been noted, with some stronger gusts in spots across the
Arco Desert and INL. These wind gusts will die down this evening
and overnight. In terms of precipitation, by late afternoon and
evening will mainly along and east of I-15. A few stragglers are
possible elsewhere until close to midnight. The main area of
concern for additional rain or snow with this band will
basically be from around Idaho Falls and Blackfoot east into the
highlands and Teton Valley. We do expect some potential for a
burst of rain or snow and quick uptick in wind, but impacts
should be very limited in area and time IF they do occur at all.
We saw some lightning yesterday afternoon, and while instability
is limited...this setup is conducive to seeing a few random
lightning strikes. Otherwise, the start to the weekend will be
dry and calm. Most folks tomorrow will only see highs in the
40s. We might see low 50s across the Magic Valley south toward
the Utah border.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

Dry conditions are expected as high pressure takes over the
pattern across our area. We do expect a low passing to our north
to kick up the wind a bit Monday and Tuesday, but we don`t see
any showers coming with that. As early as next Thursday, the
pattern shifting back toward another low moving through the West
and showers returning. The trends have been pushing the bulk of
the moisture until Friday if not until next weekend. Recent
similar forecasts that far out have ended up with less amounts
of rain and snow that forecast, so we will see what transpires
in the coming days. With this pattern, we will see warmer
temperatures but also some semblance of inversions with days
getting shorter. The latest forecasts call for plenty of 50s and
low-mid 60s next week, and would expect that to pan out
within/above any inversion layer that develops. We will need to
see how things progress in that regard. At the moment, any air
quality related impacts seem minimal to none.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 913 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

CIGs have evaporated with only SKC-SCT expected over the entire
period. VSBY should also be unlimited with neither
precipitation nor obstructions to VSBY expected.

Wind has settled down and expect widespread periods of variable
wind. KSUN should have its normal slope-valley interaction.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...Messick