760
FXUS65 KPIH 070501
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1001 PM MST Thu Nov 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and gusty winds continue through Friday evening

- Limited travel impacts for higher passes

- Warm and dry conditions by the weekend and last well into next
  week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 PM MST Thu Nov 6 2025

Showers persist early this afternoon, even between storms,
mainly over the mountains. As the next system passes through the
region, we will see an uptick in rain and snow closer to sunrise
areawide. By Friday afternoon most of the moisture shifts into
the eastern and southeast highlands, and is over around
midnight. There will be some additional "enhancement",
including a few thunderstorms, due to a convergence band
developing from around Rexburg into the Teton Valley. Wind gusts
remain in the 25-35 mph range through this evening, and again
tomorrow. There could be some localized higher gusts as well.
Looking at precipitation amounts, we may not see much at all
other than sprinkles/flurries at lower elevations. A common
theme is 0.10-0.40" for higher elevations. The higher resolution
models that feed into our Blend of Models are pushing more
localized totals 0.50-0.70" across higher terrain especially in
the Sawtooths and adjacent to Yellowstone and the Tetons. There
is a 35-45% chance of more than 0.50" for the spine of the
Sawtooths and 30-50% on our side of the border in the Big Holes
and bordering YNP and Tetons. The chance of more than 0.70" is
only 5-15%. Given the speed of the wave and showery nature of
things, there overall chance of the very high end numbers is
going to be lower than what is depicted. In terms of snowfall,
accumulations should be limited to above 7500ft, although light
snow is possible in the Stanley Basin and protected valleys due
to colder valley temperatures. A couple of inches of snow are
possible over highest passes, but travel impacts should be very
limited. That said, that quick drop in visibility due to a burst
of snow or stronger wind gust is there...just pretty low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM MST Thu Nov 6 2025

The extended portion of the forecast looks mostly dry with upper
ridging in place for the weekend and the first few days of the
upcoming work week. Temps Saturday do look to run on the cooler side
of normal with highs mainly in the 40s expected although a few spots
near the Utah border may briefly climb above 50. H5 heights rise
Sunday into Monday as the ridge amplifies with above normal
temperatures expected for much of the upcoming work week. Mid 50s to
lower 60s look likely in valley locations for much of next week
with maybe even some mid 60s possible by mid-week. This is
certainly quite mild for mid November! No precip chances expected
until at least Thursday and even then, chances are still 20 percent
or less. Things COULD become a bit more unsettled Friday and into
next weekend with models showing the potential for a trough to dig
into the PacNW but we`ll see where things trend over the next few
days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 951 PM MST Thu Nov 6 2025

The threat of precipitation has decreased since the last set of
TAFs, or is delayed for 1 to 3 hours. Showers will mostly occur
after 07/14Z, and end by early afternoon for everywhere but
KDIJ, where it appears to continue into the mid-evening hours.
The delay at KDIJ has reduced the risk of SHSN, so have improved
the VSBY expected during the precipitation event. Otherwise,
VSBY should not see much impact from the mostly SHRA.
Precipitation at KSUN has nearly completely trended away.

CIGs are a different story, still expected marginal VFR at KPIH,
KIDA, and KBYI, mostly due to the precipitation, from morning
to early afternoon. Once KDIJ gets into the precipitation, the
marginal VFR will continue from around 07/15Z to 08/04Z, worst
during the morning hours.

Wind will also return; still looking at G25KT at KDIJ and KPIH,
G30KT at KIDA, but weaker at KBYI and KSUN.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...Messick