155
FXUS65 KPIH 260425
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1025 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily, isolated shower and thunderstorms chances will continue
  through the weekend in the Central Mountains east along the
  Montana Divide, peaking in coverage each afternoon/evening.

- Conditions will remain very dry outside of any showers or
  storms, supporting elevated fire weather conditions due to a
  combination of low relative humidity and breezy winds.

- Temperatures will remain steady through Sunday, ahead of a
  warming trend starting Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

This afternoon and evening will have isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the central mountains with the main impact some
outflow winds in the 40 to 50 mph range. Expect to see dry
conditions overnight from the Snake Plain south. Lows tonight in
the 40s mountains and 50s valleys. Saturday will be a repeat of
today with afternoon and early evening isolated thunderstorms
in the central mountains. Highs again mainly 80s mountains to
lower 90s valleys. Expect 20 to 25 mph wind gusts in the Snake
River Plain and southern mountains Saturday afternoon with the
highest in the Arco Desert. Lows Saturday night again 40s and
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Southwesterly flow aloft continues through next week and main
impact will be continued isolated to scattered thunderstorms
daily mainly in the mountains. Not confident model blend
handling the amount of moisture transported north and think
would see a bit more widespread coverage as the Snake Plain is
completely dry in grids, but dew points are expected to rise by
Wednesday into Friday indicating the moisture increase. Highs
Sunday remaining 80s mountains to lower 90s valleys. By Tuesday
and Wednesday most low elevation highs in the mid 90s. Expect
cooling Thursday and Friday but still will be at or slightly
above normal with 80s to lower 90s continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Smoke from a fire south of Burley is making its way towards BYI
tonight. As a result, the visibility could fall into MVFR briefly at
times tonight. Although think most of the time it will sit in VFR.
Otherwise, light winds everywhere into tomorrow morning. Expect
scattered to broken mid clouds to arrive from convection over Utah
in the morning. Skies may not clear until mid to late afternoon.
Storm potential looks like it will probably stay north of SUN with a
10 to 20 percent chance at SUN. Also think showers on station at DIJ
looks very unlikely, sitting around a 10 percent chance here.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Isolated thunderstorms have already developed across portions of the
central mountains this afternoon, impacting FWZ 475, 476, and the
northern portions of Zone 422. Gusty outflow winds around 45 mph
will be possible as the storms continue to develop and shift
northeast into Montana and along the Divide. The storms may clip
portions of FWZ 410 and 411 into this evening. These areas remain
favorable for additional rounds of isolated mainly dry thunderstorms
through the weekend. Outside of thunderstorms, very warm and dry
conditions continue with afternoon humidities generally in the teens
with pockets of single digit RH. Winds are expected to gust
generally 20 to 30 mph during peak heating, leading to occasionally
near critical conditions. Temperatures begin a climb early next week
as drier conditions set in on southerly flow on the back side of a
strengthening four-corners high. This should generally push moisture
north and east out of the region, but an isolated storm near the
Montana border cannot be completely ruled out. There are still signs
of a monsoonal push mid to late week next week, which should
increase thunderstorm chances across East Idaho.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...GK
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...DMH