472
FXUS65 KPIH 242020
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
120 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night.
Light snow showers are tapering off in the Eastern Highlands this
afternoon and as such have gone ahead and ended the Winter Weather
Advisory a bit earlier than its original end time. We will see
clouds continue to clear out through the rest of today, but re-
development of some low stratus/fog looks likely again tonight up
around the Island Park/upper Snake Plain/Mud Lake area. After wind
gusts around 20 to 25 mph today, look for winds to diminish
overnight. Temperatures fall into the upper teens for Monday morning
in the upper Snake Plain with low 20s in the lower Snake Plain and
eastern Magic Valley.

The first half of Monday will be fairly quiet as a weak, transient
ridge moves east through the area, and we`ll actually warm up a few
extra degrees to push afternoon highs back into the low to mid 40s
for many of our valley locations and 30s as you start to gain some
elevation. Moisture begins to lift northward out of Nevada and Utah
Monday night into Tuesday as a system passes to our south. So, snow
makes its return sooner rather than later. Snow totals will only be
an inch or two in the mountains by early Tuesday morning, but snow
will continue falling throughout the day and bring impacts with it,
hence the Winter Storm Watch put out with this forecast package.
More on that below...
AMM

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday.
Tuesday looks to be last busy weather day across eastern Idaho as a
shortwave will move across the northern portion of the Great Basin
allowing widespread precipitation across our area. Most of the
moisture will will be focused south and east of the Snake River
Plain but the rest of the area will not be exempt from accumulating
snow, just to a lesser extent. Totals with this system look to range
from around a Trace to 2 inches in the Magic Valley, Snake Plain and
central mountains, with 2 to 6 inches across much of the east and
southeast highlands. Higher totals are likely in the Bear River
Range, where a Winter Storm Watch has been issued, and in the Big
Holes and some winter weather advisories may be needed on subsequent
forecasts for the Big Holes and a few other zones depending on what
we see in hi-res guidance over the next few model cycles.

The shortwave will move into eastern Utah and western Colorado by
Wednesday and precip looks to quiet down although it will remain
below normal from a temperature perspective. Cold NW flow aloft will
keep things chilly for the Thanksgiving holiday and into the
weekend. HIgh temperatures are only expected to top out in the 20s
and 30s during this period but it does look mostly dry although a
few snow showers can`t be ruled out in the higher terrain around
Island Park and near the Tetons in the NW flow but this should be
pretty low impact type snow, if we see any. Nevertheless, expect
things to be quiet before and after Thanksgiving, just
cold. McKaughan


&&

.AVIATION...18Z Sunday to 18Z Monday.
Mainly VFR conditions in place this afternoon although KIDA and
KDIJ have had to contend with occasional bouts of MVFR CIGs as we
still have some lingering low clouds in place in this area. This
SHOULD clear up over the hours ahead allowing for VFR to prevail
into the evening and overnight. Will have to watch for some
stratus development here overnight as well but guidance isn`t too
aggressive with it so it`s not forecast but it`s something to
watch. Elsewhere, VFR can be expected overnight with light winds.
Things will start to cloud up once again by mid afternoon tomorrow
and especially by tomorrow evening which is just beyond the 18Z
forecast period. VCSH can be expected at KSUN tomorrow morning
with precip becoming more widespread there, and elsewhere, late
Monday and into the day Tuesday. McKaughan


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday
afternoon for IDZ060.

&&

$$