639
FXUS65 KPIH 150852
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
152 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers through Mon limited to northwest side of central
  Idaho mountains and the upper Snake River highlands.

- Significant warm winter storm should arrive late Monday
  afternoon, peaking in intensity late Monday night and Tuesday
  morning.

- Light showers continue through to at least Friday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Today through Tue night. Upper level high still dominates, but
embedded shortwaves move through the north end of this ridge,
mainly through the Idaho panhandle and west Montana, but on the
extreme southern edge occasional flurries or light snow can be
expected in areas northwest of passes like Galena Summit and
Gilmore Summit, and in areas north and east of Rexburg. This all
changes Mon night as a deep upper level trough moves onshore.
The southerly wind ahead of the trough axis will pump warm moist
air into all of southern Idaho. Some guidance has as much liquid
water equivalent in precipitation of 0.50 of an inch, which, if
snow, could be an inch per hour over a six hour period. This is
mostly in the mountains, of course; total liquid water
equivalent in a 24 hour period at the Pocatello airport is right
around 0.25 of an inch for the bulk of the storm. This is likely
at that elevation to be rainfall, with most snow accumulations
staying at 5500ft elevation or higher for those first 24 hours.
Lighter, more showery activity develops for Tue night;
temperatures cool at this point and snow is to be expected all
the way down to Snake River plain locations.

Temperatures will be hovering close, but not quite at record
level for the afternoon highs today and Mon, but with the
evaporative cooling in precipitation and the abundant cloud
cover, Tue highs will be down 10 to 15 deg F compared to the
previous day. Cloud cover at night will have the opposite effect
on the lows, keeping them more mild until Tue night when below
freezing temperatures return to the Snake River plain and
eastern Magic Valley.

Wind wil continue to increase each afternoon, from day to day,
then Mon night should be some of the windiest conditions, but
right now appears to stay below Wind Advisory levels.

Wed through Sat...Behind this winter storm an upper level trough
becomes nearly stationary over western Canada. This keeps
troughing over the forecast area and a risk of precipitation in
the much colder conditions, even for the Snake River plain
locations. The lone break in the weather may be Fri night and
Sat, at the very end of this forecast.

For the first time in a long time, forecast temperatures are
expected to be below normal for the time of year, barely warming
to around freezing each day in this period. Overnight lows for
Pocatello linger around the upper teens. Stanley basin will
linger right around the zero mark, with highs 9 to 15 deg F
cooler than normal.

Wind continues elevated, in the breezy/brisk to windy category
during this time as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 951 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals forecast through the weekend with
very little chance of MVFR CIGs or VIS. Winds will remain light
and variable overnight but will increase beginning Sunday ahead
of the next system. Clouds will scatter/clear Sunday afternoon
before the next batch of moisture arrives.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Messick
AVIATION...Cropp