308
FXUS65 KPIH 261952
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
152 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms possible most days this week

- Cooler first half of the week, warming for Thursday and Friday

- Another chance at more widespread rain next weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Satellite imagery shows deep upper low over central California, with
southerly flow pulling moisture north across East Idaho. Showers and
a thunderstorm or two remain possible this afternoon and evening
mainly across the central mountains and portions of the eastern
highlands. Rest of the forecast area stays dry today including the
Snake Plain. Gusty southerly winds in place today helping to
maintain very warm temperatures in places, along with a steep dew
point depression. Additional moisture shifts north overnight
tonight, with potential for showers early in the day across the
southern highlands and into the Snake Plain. There are differences
in the high-res models regarding the potential, so confidence not
particularly high. Much better chances for thunderstorms exist again
around the periphery of the forecast area, likely limited across the
south and through the Snake Plain given potential for early cloud
cover to limit instability. Temperatures cool slightly for
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Low pressure will continue to shift east of Idaho on Monday. We
will see some rain and mountain snow showers drop in from the
north behind it for most of the day and into the evening. With
the track of the low, we continue to see two main areas for
heavier precipitation, one across the central mountains and the
other across the eastern highlands. The overall track though has
shifted north at the moment to pull heavier rain and snow out
of the southeast corner. Higher amounts in those spots are
pushing 1.0-1.25" and even higher locally. Probability forecasts
show a 5-15% chance of more than 1.25" occurring. Snow amounts
above 7000ft will exceed 6" in those bands, and mostly likely
those amounts and higher will be higher than pass level. On the
flip side, trace amounts of slushy snow are possible down closer
6000ft. Beyond that, a couple of weaker storms will bring quick
shots of lighter moisture totals our way. The next "big" chance
comes by next weekend. Highs quickly rebound back into the 60s
and 70s once we get past Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

The main concern for the rest of the afternoon will be gusty
south winds, especially at PIH, IDA and DIJ. Gusts of 20-40kts
are expected at those sites, strongest at PIH and IDA. We will
need to watch how gusts materialize/don`t materialize at SUN and
BYI and adjust if needed. We MAY a few showers develop north of
SUN but for now, we are not evening mentioning it in the TAF.
Overnight and Sunday morning, a few showers/sprinkles try and
develop, but the only TAF site we mention VCSH in is SUN. The
potential for showers and isolated storms rapidly increases by
afternoon, with gusty south winds returning during the day
everywhere.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...Keyes