506
FXUS65 KPIH 181908
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
108 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night.
Main impact will be lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms
late this afternoon and evening in the eastern highlands mainly.
Significant precipitation not expected. All precipitation will end
by midnight tonight with dry conditions and much warmer on
Thursday. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s mountains and 60s to
lower 70s valleys with mostly sunny skies. Light winds are
expected in the short term period.
GK

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday.
Friday through Sunday will be dry and mild with low elevation
highs well into the 70s Friday and mountains 50s and 60s. May see
slight cooling based on model blends over the weekend but still
60s to around 70 in valleys. Only chance for any precipitation
will be with a Canadian system clipping the far east Monday with
uncertainty as to how wet it will be, but not expecting much
precipiation at all due to it`s more northerly origin. Upper level
ridge rebuilds from west Tuesday into Wednesday and by Wednesday
expecting well above normal temperatures once again with highs
well into the 70s in most lower elevations. Lows through the
period generally 30s mountains and 40s valleys. Mainly light winds
and no impacts from the wind in the long term.
GK

&&

.AVIATION... 18Z Wednesday through 18Z Thursday.
As this system continues to pinwheel out of the area, we will still
see a bit of wrap-around moisture in the DIJ and IDA areas today.
The line of showers this afternoon could even extend far enough west
to SUN, though that confidence is a bit lower, but have kept the
VCSH there. BYI and PIH are expected to remain dry. VFR to MVFR
conditions are expected through the afternoon hours with the
potential for MVFR mainly at IDA and DIJ due to lower CIGs with
passing showers. The potential for some patchy fog will exist again
tonight, though it looks less widespread than this morning. There`s
only about a 10 to 20 percent chance of MVFR CIGs at IDA and DIJ
early Wednesday morning, and only a 5 to 10 percent chance of IFR
CIGs at those two sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The system that brought us widespread showers and
storms over the last couple of days continues to move northeast
today. We will still have a few scattered showers and an isolated
storm or two lingering in portions of Zones 410, 411, 422, and 476.
Overall, impacts are expected to be minimal. After today, we are
expecting to trend drier and slightly warming with temperatures
warming just a couple of degrees each day. While we will remain in
between systems, it appears we will catch some minimal troughing
passing through on Friday thanks to a system farther south and
another farther north. While models aren`t showing much for precip
chances with this, it seems like there will be at least a small (10
to 20 percent) chance for an isolated shower or storm on Friday,
mainly in the Eastern Highlands. This troughing looks to bring the
strongest wind gusts over the next few days in on Friday, but even
those will be ranging from only 20 to 30 mph with the higher gusts
in our "usual" windy spots in the eastern Magic Valley and out
across the desert. Otherwise, expect afternoon gusts in the 15 to 20
mph range each day. While we`re not looking at much precipitation,
our minimum relative humidity looks to stay in the 30 to 40 percent
range across most of the area for the next several days. All of this
to say, there don`t appear to be any critical or near-critical fire
weather conditions coming up within the next several days.
AMM

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$